Mar 14, 2014 Brief Update

Brief Update: Monday’s Storm Potential

As previously noted, I am unable to post a full blog update today, although I am able to post a brief update on Monday’s storm potential. With an elongated positively tilted shortwave trough extending into the southern US, a frigid air mass associated with the polar vortex over SE Canada, and a strong high pressure building into the NE US, the potential for suppression is higher than a storm too far north as earlier runs such as the NAM and SREF depicted. Given the latest indications, odds of a suppressed scenario with most of, if not all snow remaining south of the area is still favored for Sunday night into Monday, although the potential for accumulating snow reaching the NYC area cannot be ruled out at this stage and will continue to be monitored, in which case the synoptic setup would support at least light-moderate accumulations under the axis of higher snow totals, regardless of whether this sets up in the Mid Atlantic as currently forecast or closer to the area.

The next in-depth forecast analysis will be posted on Saturday morning.

 

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