1:15 PM: Temps Warmer than Forecast
Estimated regional temperatures as of 16z (12pm), from the RTMA analysis from NCEP Model Analyses and Guidance.
Today’s setup is typically considered a classic case of model guidance underestimating temperatures; with sunshine and downsloping westerly winds ahead of a slowly approaching cold front, model guidance often tends to underestimate high temperatures, sometimes by as much as 10 degrees, with the GFS and NAM having depicted highs generally in the upper 40s-mid 50s across the area. Yesterday’s forecast sided with highs in the mid-upper 50s, with this morning’s 8-day outlook introducing low 60s in NYC and NE NJ. The rate of warming has even exceeded that of the forecast accounting for this model bias, however, with temperatures already in the upper 50s to low 60s across the area. Temperatures will continue to rise over the next 3 hours or so before the incline stops, with high temperatures in the low 60s inland and near the coast, and the mid 60s elsewhere, possibly reaching the upper 60s near NE NJ.
Temperatures will gradually cool down tonight into the upper 30s-mid 40s, and are likely to rise into the 50s again on Wednesday near parts of northern NJ into NYC and Long Island as the area enters the warm sector, but with a sharp cool down overnight as yet another anomalous cold air mass returns, with daytime highs on Thursday only peaking in the low to mid 20s with wind chills in the single digits, marking a drastic change in temperatures from today’s conditions. More information on tomorrow’s storm outlook, including the risk of thunderstorms in the evening, albeit with any isolated strong storms likely to remain southwest of the area, and the anticipated flash freeze and wild temperature swings, will be posted this evening by 7-8pm.