7pm: An update is currently in progress and will be posted within the next hour. Snow is a concern, but freezing rain and ice accumulations are a major concern as well, especially away from the coast. More info coming shortly.
[notice]Since I was unable to update the blog this morning, an intermediate afternoon update has been posted regarding the storm tomorrow. A more in-depth discussion, analysis and snow map will be posted by 7pm.[/notice]
Forecast Update: Storm Trending North
The general trend this winter in the short range has been for a short range north trend, which was especially notable with yesterday’s major snowstorm which was modeled to remain well to the south just 2-3 days in advance. As will be discussed in more details this evening, this storm is currently undergoing a relatively minor short range trend towards a further north and stronger system, but to a lesser extent than recent storms. A short range trend to the north was anticipated, as noted with the previous full forecast discussion on 12/2, but the north trend was slightly more aggressive than anticipated; along with the area having been originally near the borderline area of precipitation types, this northern shift is likely to decrease forecast snow and ice totals in the area and increase the probability of rain, especially in northeast NJ, NYC and Long Island.
With the ongoing north trend, the question remains how far north it will end up relative to prior forecasts; the NAM is currently the northernmost model, with practically the whole area observing less than 1-2 inches of snow, but is most likely too strong with the storm and is being considered as an outlier. Snow totals will be further analyzed in this evening’s forecast, and slight changes are possible with the next update; based on the latest data, the forecast accumulations at this time are 1-2″ in Long Island, 1-4″ in NYC, 2-5″ in the north/west suburbs of NYC, 3-6″ in southern CT and NW NJ, and 5-10″ in SE NY. Freezing rain is likely especially over northern NJ and mostly towards NW NJ, along parts of SE NY and coastal CT to a lesser extent, with up to 1/4 inch of ice possible in NW NJ. With the current anticipated conditions, along with the anticipated changeover to mixed precipitation or rain prior to 7-8am for most of the area except for southern CT and SE NY, a hazardous morning commute is expected north and west of NYC, with the highest probability of school closures towards SE NY and southern CT, possibly including NW NJ depending on the amount of freezing rain, with a higher probability of delays in the north/west suburbs of NYC.
Stay tuned for more information this evening, along with an update on Sunday’s storm potential.