Feb 3, 2014 Evening Update

[notice]Tuesday, 2/4 Morning Update: Today’s forecast discussion will be posted this evening by 7pm. In the meantime, the 8-day outlook has been updated through Monday.[/notice]

Evening Update: Heavy Snow, Ice Return For Wednesday

gfs_namer_042_850_temp_mslp_precipAs one major snowstorm moves out, another one will move in; from this point with snow from today’s system having ended across the area, only a 30-hour break is anticipated before the next round of snow and ice affect the area. In the meantime, temperatures tonight will fall into the mid 10s-low 20s for most of the area before rebounding into the low 30s on Tuesday. Along with partial sunshine, especially in the morning hours, slight melting is likely from today’s snowstorm, but with a significant snow pack expected to remain in place when Wednesday’s storm affects the area with additional moderate to heavy snowfall.

Forecast Update: The expectation at this time is for light snow to develop between 12-2am, with heavy snow then falling through the morning hours, around at least 7-9am, while coastal sections of Long Island and NYC gradually mix with and change over to rain by the morning. Between 7-9am through the early afternoon hours, a changeover to sleet and freezing rain is expected inland of NYC, with a cold rain likely in NYC and Long Island, with freezing rain possible for the colder spots in Long Island as well. Precipitation is expected to taper off in the early afternoon.

Preliminary forecast snow accumulations as of now are 6-11″ in NW NJ/SE NY, 5-9″ in the north/west suburbs of NYC and southern CT, 3-7″ in NYC, and 2-4″ in Long Island. Additionally, light ice accumulations up to 1/4 inch are possible especially in the north/west suburbs of NYC. Due to the timing of the storm, a hazardous morning commute is expected for Wednesday, with a high probability of school closures and possibly delays.

 

A more detailed forecast discussion and analysis of Wednesday’s storm will be posted on Tuesday evening, along with updated information on Sunday’s storm, which the model guidance continues to signal could be even more significant than some of the recent storms with widespread snow and/or rain. Due to the continuation of frequent storm systems affecting the area, a summary of today’s storm is unavailable at this time; both today’s and Wednesday’s storms will have a summary and an estimated snow map posted by the coming weekend.

 

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