The latest model guidance continues to trend increasingly snowier, led by the 0z NAM with nearly an inch of liquid-equivalent precipitation, which translating with 10:1 ratios would result in nearly 10 inches of snow. Comparing the latest radar and observed 500mb heights with the models, the RAP and RGEM models are generally close to the current observations, while the 0z NAM is too amplified and RUC is too far north. This would support at least 0.65″ to 0.80″ of precipitation; considering that initial mixing with rain is anticipated, along with warm ground temperatures likely to result in at least a brief period of non-accumulating snow, forecast accumulations are likely to be slightly lower than the standard 10:1 ratios.
Moderate to heavy snow is expected to develop between 7-8am, peaking between 9am-1pm before ending by at least 4pm. The heaviest snow rates are expected near and west/south of NYC. The latest forecast accumulations are 5-8″ of snow in NYC into I-80; 4-7″ in Long Island; 3-6″ in N NJ north of I-80 and southern CT; and 2-4″ in SE NY. Live storm updates will begin at 5am.