Feb 15, 2014 Storm Updates

Occasional updates will be posted below on the moderate snow event affecting the region today. Radar images are from the Pennsylvania State University e-Wall. I am currently unable to update the 8-day outlook, which will be updated instead late tonight or tomorrow morning with the next full forecast discussion.

Links: Yesterday’s forecast | Twitter | Facebook


Current storm snow totals in NYC: (Updated 7pm)

Central Park – 1.5″ | LaGuardia – 2.5″ | JFK Airport – 1.4″



8:10 PM: Snow Ending W of NYC, Intensifying East

nerad253As of 7pm, the low pressure is south of Cape Cod and east of Cape May. Minimum pressure is near 985mb, and the low continues to quickly deepen while tracking to the northeast.

Snow totals across the area as of 7pm were mostly between 1 and 3 inches, with locally higher totals mainly in Long Island and CT, which is slightly lower than forecast. While snow has generally ended from NYC and further north/west, moderate snow continues over most of Long Island and Connecticut. Snow will continue falling in these locations until at least 9pm before gradually tapering off, with accumulations over 4-6 inches towards eastern Long Island and SE CT. As the nor’easter rapidly deepens northeast of the area, some clearing is expected in the cloud cover tonight with the tightening pressure gradient leading to continued windy conditions from the northwest, which along with lows in the 10s to low 20s will lead to wind chills in the single digits for many locations for Sunday morning. Partly sunny skies are expected on Sunday with high temperatures struggling to rise above the mid to upper 20s.

This is the final storm update for tonight. The next full update, including the discussion and an 8-day forecast, will be updated on Sunday morning, along with a storm summary of Thursday’s snowstorm.


4:45 PM: Snow Redevelops

nerad252As of 4pm, the low pressure is south of eastern LI and east of southern Delaware. Minimum pressure is near 990mb, and the low pressure will continue to quickly deepen as it tracks to the northeast.

Over the last hour, widespread precipitation redeveloped across the area, falling as snow for more locations as temperatures slowly drop into the low 30s. Earlier this afternoon, a brief burst of moderate snow resulted in locally over 2 inch accumulations in far NW NJ and interior SE NY, while the immediate NYC area and central-western LI into CT stayed mostly dry with little snow. A steady moderate snow will generally continue through 7-8pm before ending for most locations in north NJ/SE NY into NYC, with a storm total of at least 2-4 inches expected, taking longer to do so in LI/CT where steadier moderate snow rates will continue through the early overnight hours with 4-6 inches of snow expected, locally higher in eastern areas.

Forecast Update: More Snow For Tuesday – the latest model guidance once again continues the trend of snowstorms favoring New Jersey and Pennsylvania, as the storm on Wednesday, previously anticipated to keep the heaviest snow to the north, is the latest addition in a series of storms to have trended colder and snowier, with the latest CMC and ECM models suggesting at least 4-6 inches of snow for most of the area, if not even higher. More information will be posted on this storm this evening.


1:25 PM: Yet Another Snowstorm Underway

nerad25As of 1pm, the low pressure is east of North Carolina and south of NYC. Minimum pressure is near 997mb, and the low is steadily tracking NE. Rapid deepening is expected later tonight as the low passes east of Cape Cod and just east of Maine.

Comparing current observations with the latest model data, yesterday’s 18z GFS and 21z SREF which were among the westernmost models, are too strong with the low pressure and too low with mid level heights near the trough axis, and as a result too far west with the heavy snow axis. So far, most of the area has seen scattered wet snow with not many stations reporting measurable precipitation, along with a warm boundary layer with temperatures several degrees above freezing preventing much accumulation of the snow that is falling in some locations. The radar especially depicts less precipitation than forecast in eastern Pennsylvania, and forecast snow totals in western NJ and SE NY are expected to be lower than previously indicated, generally below 1-2 inches.

The main uncertainty is regarding the snow totals for the rest of the area, as some of the high resolution models are depicting more snow further west than the latest radar observations indicate. The more widespread precipitation is still down in the Delmarva Peninsula, and will continue to track NE up the coast with more widespread snow expected later this afternoon. Besides earlier noted areas, at least 1.5 to 3 inches of snow are likely for most of the area, locally up to 4 inches, with totals near 4-8 inches towards central-eastern LI away from the coast and SE CT. Totals are still subject to slight changes depending on the exact development of snow bands later today..

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