A prolonged cold spell began with Tuesday’s storm, with temperatures over the last two days generally in the 10s and single digits. Similar temperatures will continue today and tomorrow, before warming up on Saturday ahead of a cold front with snow showers producing up to 1″ of snow or locally higher. Another round of even colder temperatures is likely by the middle of next week before the potential for late week snow (Image credit: NCEP MAG).
<< January 21 | January 22 | January 23 >>
Wednesday, January 22 Observations:
As Tuesday’s storm departed the region, temperatures gradually fell into the single digits across most of the area by the morning hours, with strong northerly winds leading to wind chill values between -5 and -15 degrees. More sunshine returned later in the day as temperatures warmed up into the low to mid 10s inland and mid to upper 10s elsewhere, marking the second day this winter where almost the entire area stayed below 20 degrees.
The highest temperature was 20 degrees in Montauk, NY, and the coolest high temperature was 10 degrees in Danbury, CT.
Today – Saturday: Cold Continues, Snow Expected for Saturday
A cold air mass remains situated over the region at this time, with 850mb temperatures generally between -15C and -20C. The trough axis will swing through the region tonight into tomorrow, bringing the coldest temperatures aloft into the region before departing by Friday night, supporting a continuation of well below normal temperatures through Friday. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected today with highs in the upper 10s to low 20s, with lows falling overnight into the single digits to low 10s again while highs on Friday climb into the upper 10s for most of the area and the mid 10s inland.
6z run of the high resolution 4k NAM at hour 60, depicting light to locally moderate snow moving through the area early Saturday afternoon. Despite a strong southwesterly flow, this will fall as snow (Image credit: PSU e-Wall).
More changes will occur in the upper level flow on Saturday as a strong piece of the polar vortex dives southward through the Hudson Bay, with a low pressure developing and steadily deepening over southern Canada. As it does so, a strong southwesterly flow will set up over the region with winds near 10-20 mph, which will remove most of the cold air from the region, while light precipitation spreads into the region ahead of the cold front in the evening hours. Given the initial strong cold over the region, however, enough cold air will remain in place that despite the low pressure well to the north, along with a strong southwesterly flow, precipitation type will fall as snow across most of the area as temperatures only rise into the mid 20s to low 30s, an unusual scenario for the area involving both snow and strong southwesterly winds. Enough moisture is likely for at least light to locally moderate snow, mainly between 10am and 5pm, with up to an inch of snow expected with locally higher totals possible.