Blog Statement

The primary purpose of this blog is to focus on weather outlooks and observations for the New York City area, although a topic has surfaced over the last few days which I think is important to address, regarding an image of the “ECMWF Control” model depicting a major snowstorm that has spread online. Weather forecasters often make use of a variety of computer-generated model guidance to assess the anticipated weather patterns and to assist in creating a forecast, although these models are only meant to be used as guidance, as accuracy can significantly decrease beyond at least the 4-5 day range with a wide variety of different outputs with each run. Thus, it is important to take model outputs especially beyond 5 days with caution and to NOT assume the exact scenario depicted by the models as a fact or a high-likelihood expectation, whether it’s a blizzard, massive storm or just a sunny day shown on the ECMWF model 240 hours (10 days) away, for example. Most likely, the following model run will depict a different outcome, perhaps significantly so, with a lack of run-to-run continuity signaling low confidence in any specific model output.

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