Following the rain event on Friday night, drier and colder conditions returned into the region today. Light snow and sleet will develop on Sunday evening, changing to rain later overnight and freezing rain inland with light snow accumulations expected inland. Much colder temperatures will return for the mid week with highs in the 20s to low 30s, warming up towards next weekend ahead of the next potential for precipitation (Image credit: PSU e-Wall, NAM precip types for 8pm Sun).
Tonight – Monday: Light Snow/Sleet To Rain/Freezing Rain
A cold air mass will continue to push into the region tonight, with widespread lows in the 20s, with some 10s inland. Increasing clouds are expected on Sunday with highs only in the mid to upper 30s across the area. A disorganized system will approach the region overnight into Monday, with a weak surface low pressure off the coast producing most of the precipitation associated with this system. Initially, temperatures will be cold enough at all layers to support snow showers developing around 6-8 PM except for Long Island and NYC, which may start out with some snow but are expected to quickly change over to rain. With mid level temperatures warming up faster than surface temperatures, a changeover to sleet and then rain is expected in the north and west suburbs of NYC, likely completing the changeover in northern NJ towards 1-3 AM and SE NY/southern CT towards 3-5 AM. Interior locations in NW NJ and SE NY, however, will change over to freezing rain with sub-freezing surface temperatures expected. All locations will change over to rain by Monday morning, except for isolated interior locations, with showers continuing on Monday through the early afternoon before ending with highs in the low-mid 40s for most.
The previous forecast update noted that the amount of precipitation was uncertain, and based on latest indications, generally light precipitation is expected initially, with heavier precipitation not moving in until temperatures have warmed enough to support sleet or rain. As such, at least up to 1 inch of snow/sleet is expected in the north/west suburbs of NYC, and 1-2 inches, locally higher, towards the rest of northern NJ, SE NY and southern CT. Freezing rain totals of up to 0.05 to possibly 0.10 inch are expected for interior locations. Storm updates and a final forecast will be posted on Sunday.
Next Week: Cold, Then Slightly Moderating
Behind the storm, another frigid air mass will drop into the Midwest, east of the current cold air mass in the Rockies, and is expected to slide east. The core of the cold will remain well north of the region, but very cold temperatures will make a return into the region, similar to or slightly colder than those of the November 24 cold surge. Tuesday will have highs likely in the low-mid 30s with the possibility of scattered snow showers near or especially south of NYC as a weak wave of low pressure potentially develops along the frontal boundary; there remains some uncertainty with this wave, however, and some changes in the track are possible. The coldest temperatures will occur between Wednesday and Friday, with mostly to partly sunny skies, highs in the 25-32 degree range for most, and lows in the 10s for most and possibly upper single digits inland. Temperatures will then moderate by Friday and next weekend as ridging begins to amplify over the region and another trough approaches the Midwest.
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Friday, December 6 Observations:
Read more: December 6 Storm Updates
A strong frontal boundary gradually slided east through the region, with an unseasonably strong arctic air mass following behind it over the central and western US. Highs peaked early in the day in the mid 50s to low 60s, with light rain in the morning ending during the day. Another wave of low pressure moved through overnight, producing heavier rain with 1/2 to 1 inch across the area. Interior locations were forecast to change to snow, and some snow did fall in NW NJ and SE NY up to 1/2 to locally 1 inch, but the storm moved out faster than expected with less snow than forecast.
The highest temperature was 62 degrees in Central Park, NY and Newark, NJ, and the coolest high temperature was 51 degrees in Montgomery, NY.
Thursday, December 5 Observations:
As a warm front moved through the region, cloud cover increased as temperatures gradually warmed into the 50s, peaking overnight in the mid 50s inland and the upper 50s to low 60s for the rest of the area. Scattered showers were observed at times, especially in the morning and overnight hours, while the heavier rain stayed north and west of the area. The highest temperature was 61 degrees in Westhampton Beach, NY, and the coolest high temperature was 49 degrees in Montgomery, NY.