Dec 3, 2013: Rain Friday, Next Monday

Forecast Highlights:

temp60A warming trend will continue over the next few days as highs reach the upper 40s to low 50s across most of the area today and tomorrow; occasional rain will return for Thursday night into Friday night, with temperatures initially surging into the mid 50s-low 60s before gradually falling. The theme of temperature fluctuations will continue, as temperatures next weekend cool down into the upper 30s-low 40s before another widespread rain event on Monday, likely starting with snow/ice for some (Image credit: PSU e-Wall, NAM temps for Thursday).

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Monday, December 2 Observations:

12.2.13Widespread cloud cover persisted across the region as a coastal low began developing well to the east of the area late in the day but with the rain staying east as well. The warmer air mass that entered on Sunday remained in place, with temperatures similar to those of Sunday, in the mid 40s inland and upper 40s to low 50s for the rest of the area. The highest temperature was 51 degrees in Newark, NJ and JFK airport, and the coolest high temperature was 42 degrees in Port Jervis, NY and Montgomery, NY.



Today – Friday: Warming Up, Rainy End To Week

A low pressure developing well offshore will track towards Atlantic Canada, allowing a narrow high pressure to build into the area tonight into Wednesday. Some clearing in the cloud cover is expected today into tomorrow, with areas of fog and highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Scattered showers are possible on Wednesday night as temperatures gradually warm up overnight, eventually surging into the mid-upper 50s inland and upper 50s-low 60s for the rest of the area on Thursday with mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers.

The approaching frontal boundary will be slow to move through, with a wave of rain moving along the frontal boundary before sliding offshore. While yesterday, it appeared there would be two waves of precipitation, they have been trending closer with less separation between the two. Occasional showers are expected between Thursday night and Friday night, with the greatest likelihood towards Friday evening, with up to 1/2 to 1 inch of rain currently expected. As the frontal boundary moves through, temperatures will initially remain steady in the low to mid 50s across most of the area on Thursday night before stalling or steadily falling throughout the day on Friday into the 40s and then 30s overnight. It is possible interior western parts of the area, towards NW NJ and SE NY, may mix with and/or change over to snow at the end of the storm.


Saturday – Next Week: Occasional Cold Surges, Early Week Storm Expected

Behind the late week cold front, a colder air mass will enter the region, but in a much more moderated form compared with the extreme cold surge currently affecting the northwestern and north central US; highs are expected to reach the upper 30s to low 40s over the weekend, with overnight lows ranging from the mid 20s inland to the low 30s near NYC. The dry conditions will be short lasting as another storm approaches the region from the southwest, but with some differences compared with the late week rain. By this time frame, a strong high pressure will be initially located over the northeast US, and with cold air initially in place, there is the possibility for snow and/or ice at the start of the storm, with the greater likelihood north of NYC. Given the upper level setup with persistent ridging in the southeastern US, however, more amplification will tend to result in a further north/west storm track and a faster changeover to rain for locations that do start with frozen precipitation. At this time, I am siding towards a more amplified and north storm track with some snow to start, especially in northern areas with the possibility for light accumulations, followed by a quick changeover to rain and temperatures warming up into the 40s for Monday with another 1/2 to 1 inch of rain possible; in the 8-day forecast, I inserted a 90% chance of precipitation considering the overall setup, and the consistency with the model guidance and ensembles regarding precipitation affecting the region. As this is in the 5-6 day range, however, some changes are still anticipated regarding the model handling of the setup, and a colder scenario with more initial frozen precipitation cannot be ruled out.

Behind the storm, colder temperatures are expected to return into the region with highs likely again in the 30s with lows in the 20s, but given the continued -PNA and southeast ridging pattern, the core of the cold will remain north and west of the region, with temperatures likely to moderate closer to average by late next week.

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