A warm air mass continues to spread into the region, with temperatures today and tomorrow returning into the low to mid 60s range for most along with mild overnight lows as a cold front approaches. Scattered showers with up to 1/4 inch are expected on Thursday, followed by a minor cool down into the weekend, peaking early next week with widespread cold temperatures. A warm up is likely late into next week and weekend with the potential for rain to return.
Today – Thursday: Mild, Some Showers
The current pattern setup consists of a strong ridge over the southeastern US, and a progressive trough in the central US shifting east towards the region ahead of another incoming shortwave trough in the northwest US. The surface low pressure will intensify as it tracks through the Great Lakes and Canada, bringing a cold front through the Ohio Valley today and the Northeast US region tomorrow. This will advect a warm air mass into the region with 850mb temperatures reaching 10C; partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected today with highs peaking in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Temperatures will struggle falling below the low to mid 50s tonight as the cold front approaches.
The last forecast update on Monday noted that the trough is much flatter than originally anticipated, which will lead to a minor rain event and typical moderate winds around 5-15 mph. Last night continued the trend towards a flatter trough, which will result in a the front moving through faster than previously expected, keeping most of the showers during the daytime on Thursday, clearing by the mid to late afternoon with less than 1/4 inch expected. This will also limit high temperatures, which are expected to peak in the upper 50s inland and low to mid 60s elsewhere. Colder temperatures will return overnight, falling into the 30s away from NYC and the coast.
Friday – Sunday: Chilly, Dry Conditions Return
As the trough exits, a progressive flow aloft will continue over the region, flattening out to a near zonal flow aside from a shortwave trough quickly moving through New England on Saturday and Sunday. A colder air mass will briefly return for Friday and Saturday with 850mb temperatures near -6C, with high temperatures reaching the upper 40s-low 50s inland and low-mid 50s elsewhere, and overnight lows falling into the mid-upper 20s inland, low 30s for the north/west suburbs, southern CT and Long Island, and mid-upper 30s in NYC and the coast. As the aforementioned shortwave trough quickly moves through the region, temperatures will briefly warm up into the mid to upper 50s on Sunday with partly cloudy skies as scattered showers stay well to the north.