Nov 29, 2013: Gradual Warm Up Starts Sunday

Forecast Highlights:

temp12Following the significant rain and wind event a few days ago, tranquil conditions will continue through Saturday with temperatures still well below average, in the 30s for highs, but with a warm up to start December with mostly cloudy skies for the first half of the week and highs in the 40s. A frontal passage is expected in the late week with showers possible, followed by a return of somewhat colder temperatures by next weekend.



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Thursday, November 28 Observations:

11.28.13Behind Wednesday’s significant storm, a much colder air mass returned for Thanksgiving day, with mostly sunny skies, a breezy NW wind starting out with gusts up to 30-35 mph before calming down by the afternoon and evening, and unseasonably cold high temperatures, peaking in the low to mid 30s across most of the area for highs. The highest temperature was 37 degrees in multiple stations, and the coolest high temperature was 32 degrees in multiple stations.





Tonight – Tuesday: Warming Trend Begins; Few Showers Possible

Another cold night is expected with a strong arctic air mass over the region, with a strong 1040mb surface high to the north providing light northerly winds and mostly clear skies, supporting cold temperatures tonight ranging from the low-mid 10s in interior regions to the mid 20s near NYC. Mostly sunny skies are expected for Saturday with a light north wind and highs in the low-mid 30s inland and mid 30s elsewhere. In a somewhat similar theme to last year, while November ends with December-like cold, December will start with warmer temperatures as a weak low pressure tracks through northern NY state, removing the cold air mass on Saturday night with a risk for isolated showers. Mostly cloudy skies are expected for Sunday, the first day of meteorological winter, with highs in the low 40s inland and mid 40s elsewhere. Similar temperatures will continue into Monday with mostly cloudy skies expected again.

By Tuesday, some of the earlier model runs developed a coastal low directly affecting the area with widespread rain, although the setup is somewhat complex and is marginal for any significant storm to develop given the strong troughing in the western US and a narrow ridge axis in the central US shifting east; at least some impact may be possible from this system as it develops with the most significant impacts staying offshore, and at this time, I included a chance of rain in the 8-day forecast, primarily east of NYC, with highs on Tuesday again in the low to mid 40s across the area.


Wednesday – Beyond: Warmer Late Week, Then Cooling Down

By the second half of next week, the persistent -EPO/-PNA upper level pattern continues with anomalous ridging near Alaska dumping arctic air into the western and north central US, while ridging will extend into the eastern US and persist, leading to a warm up by Wednesday into the late week as temperatures likely return into the 50s for highs by Friday. By that point, a cold front is expected to move through with showers possible but with widespread heavy precipitation unlikely at this time. Given the persistent ridging near the southeast US, however, the cold front will fail to facilitate an eastern US trough pattern, with the colder air mass instead gradually sliding east into the region, especially further north, with cooler temperatures by next weekend. The main uncertainty is regarding the outlook around the 8-11th time frame, when the longer range models have been hinting at the possibility of a low pressure developing along the frontal boundary with an overrunning precipitation event in the region. This is still beyond the 8-10 day range and is easily subject to change, although this time frame is currently favored for the next potential risk of widespread precipitation somewhere in the region. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range outlook.

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