Nov 12, 2013 Poll Results

Poll opened: November 7, 2013
Poll closed: November 12, 2013


What will NYC see late next week (Nov. 14-16)? (26 votes)

7 votes – No storm; cold and dry
2 votes – Minor storm, light rain
3 votes – Minor storm, light snow
3 votes – Major storm, mostly rain
11 votes – Major storm, more snow than rain


Correct Answer:
No storm – 7 votes (27%)

On November 7, the model guidance signaled a major storm affecting the northeast US region during November 14-16, with the GFS and CMC models indicating a moderate snowstorm for the area and the ECMWF showing a major snowstorm, with widespread 12+ inch snow amounts across the region. 2011 and 2012 proved that with the right setup, an early season snowstorm is possible in the NYC area, but largely depends on the setup and development of the storm. The November 7 forecast discussion sided with the no storm scenario, with the low pressure developing well offshore with only rain/snow showers from Tuesday’s (11/12) cold front. The model guidance ultimately lost the storm scenario, with the ECM the last model to trend away from the snowstorm, continuing its trend of difficulty with handling medium range storm potentials this fall.



Leave a Reply