Below are the daily observations for October 9-11 for the area. Tonight’s forecast discussion will follow later.
<< October 8 | October 9 | October 10 | October 11 | October 12 >>
Friday, October 11 Observations:
With similar conditions to Thursday’s setup, the coastal low continued to remain stationary to the south, with flooding rains in Pennsylvania as high as 10+ inches, while the area stayed dry aside from a few isolated showers near and west/south of NYC. Temperatures ended up warmer than Thursday, peaking in the low 70s in southern CT, upper 60s in southeast NY, NYC and Long Island, and the mid to upper 60s in northern NJ. The highest temperature was 72 degrees in New London, CT, and the coolest high temperature was 64 degrees in Morristown, NJ.
Thursday, October 10 Observations:
The aforementioned coastal low pressure gradually tracked north, reaching the area on Thursday with areas of light rain in the morning. The forecast for the 24-hour period was for occasional rain with up to 1/2 inch in northern areas and 1/2 to 1 inch elsewhere, with more on Friday; this was below some of the model guidance with as much as 3-5 inches of rain, but the rain ended up staying west of the area for the rest of the day. The models incorrectly focused rain near the coast of New Jersey/NYC; instead, rainfall focused over Pennsylvania, which along with persistent convection well offshore and mid level dry air due to a high pressure further north, led to subsidence over the area which prevented rain development. Rain totals were below 1/4 inch generally.
Despite the lack of rainfall, the cloud cover and continued northeast wind brought cooler temperatures, peaking in the upper 50s further west and the low to mid 60s elsewhere; this was the first day with sub-60 high temperatures in the area this fall, and the first since June. The highest temperature was 67 degrees in Islip, NY, and the coolest high temperature was 57 degrees in Sussex, NJ and Andover, NJ.