Oct 7, 2013 Storm Updates

10/8/13 Update: An EF-1 tornado has been confirmed in Paramus, NJ (Bergen).

Below, a few storm updates will be posted on the heavy rain and thunderstorms affecting the area today. Updates are being posted both on the blog and on Twitter.

Links:
Today’s Forecast Discussion
7-Day Forecast

 


7:40 PM: Rain Moving Out

northeastSince the last update, the line of storms shifted mostly east of NYC, with light to moderate rain and wind affecting Long Island and CT. These storms will continue to move out over the next 2 hours, with most of the area expected by dry by 9 PM. The line of thunderstorms has considerably weakened since the early afternoon, with the strongest storms north of the area in the Hudson Valley, although there were reports of wind gusts locally up to 60 mph in northeast NJ, especially in Bergen and Passaic counties, where wind damage was reported. Otherwise, less rain than expected was observed due to the line weakening as it moved through parts of the area.

This is the final storm update for today. The next forecast update will be posted on Tuesday morning regarding the potential for late week rain.

 

4:30 PM: Storms Entering Long Island

1958Over the last 3 hours, the line entered northern NJ and SE NY, where there were reports of wind damage along with heavy rainfall, up to or locally over 1/2 inch so far. The strongest line stayed to the north of the area, however, with the strong storms collapsing just before reaching NYC and parts of northeast NJ. The partially weakened line will continue east into Long Island and southern CT, where moderate to briefly heavy rain is expected with up to 1/2 inch, locally higher. Despite the weakening of the line, however, strong wind gusts remain a risk with up to 40-50 mph gusts possible at times. The line will gradually move out over the next few hours, ending by the late evening for most of the area.

 

1:30 PM: Heavy Rain, Strong Wind Approaching

1648Throughout the morning and early afternoon, the cold front quickly moved east, and the front end of the heavy rain and thunderstorms is located near eastern PA as of 1:15 PM. This line will continue to quickly move east, with the onset of rain expected around 2-4 PM in northern NJ, 4 in NYC, and 4-6 PM in Long Island and southern CT. Until the line reaches the area, mainly cloudy skies are generally expected but with occasional breaks in the cloud cover possible at times. Windy conditions will continue with sustained winds of 15-30 mph and gusts up to 40 mph; JFK airport recorded a gust of 38 mph at 12:51 PM.

With the onset of the line, there are not many reports of thunder currently associated with the line, although heavy rainfall rates are expected, along with strong wind gusts up to 40-60 mph with the stronger storms, and a quick drop in temperatures to the low 60s. While probability is not high, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out north and west of NYC. The rain will be quick moving, lasting at least 3-4 hours for most locations before winding down, with most of the area dry by the early overnight hours.

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