Oct 4, 2013 Brief Update

[notice]Today’s update was delayed and shortened due to technical difficulties. The next full update and 7-day forecast are currently scheduled to be posted by tomorrow afternoon.[/notice]

Forecast Overview:

As tomorrow’s update will mention in more detail, today featured less cloud cover than expected, which along with continued westerly winds and a warm air mass resulted in much warmer than expected temperatures, with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s for most of the area and even 90 degrees in Teterboro, NJ. Despite today’s temperature bust, however, this weekend and Monday are not expected to be as warm as a stalled frontal boundary, currently north of the area, shifts towards NYC and stalls nearby, with a southeast flow and more widespread cloud cover likely to prevent temperatures from warming up above the low 80s.

Highs on the weekend largely depend on exactly where the frontal boundary sets up, which at this time is likely to be around NYC, if not a bit south or north, leaving a room for error in the forecast temperatures. At this time, I am expecting highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s east of NYC, mid 70s in NYC, and mid 70s to low 80s west of NYC. As a warmer air mass tries to approach on Sunday, locations south of the frontal boundary should be able to reach the low to mid 80s, which at this time is favored to be southwest of NYC but can change around a bit.

Towards Monday, the storm that is currently producing a blizzard and severe weather outbreak in the Midwest will slowly reach the region as a strong upper level low detached from the jet stream; there is some uncertainty regarding how much separation there is, and thus how much moisture from the remnants of tropical storm Karen can track up the East Coast before the upper level low exits and ridging builds in, trapping the remaining moisture south of the area, although at this time there is more confidence in a scenario supporting heavy rain on Monday night into Tuesday, possibly up to or over 1 inch, with the heaviest rainfall west of NYC and lighter rain amounts east of NYC. This is still subject to change, however, and a more in-depth analysis will be posted with Saturday’s forecast. A warm up is then likely towards the second half of next week into next weekend with temperatures near to above average, but with the most significant warm anomalies likely to the north.


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Thursday, October 3 Observations:

10.3.13The unseasonably warm air mass stayed in place from Wednesday, but with slightly cooler temperatures as temperatures aloft slightly cooled down and wind direction shifted to the southwest. Highs reached the mid to upper 70s across most of the area, with low 80s observed in northeastern NJ. The highest temperature was 82 degrees in Newark, NJ and Teterboro, NJ, and the coolest high temperature was 75 degrees in Danbury, CT and Port Jervis, NY.

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