A strong cold front will affect the region on Friday, bringing the most significant rain event in nearly a month with as much as 1/2 inch of rain possible, while high temperatures surge well into the 60s and the low 70s along with strong wind gusts in the 35-50 mph range. A brief yet strong cool down is expected over the weekend with widespread lows in the 20s, followed by another significant warm up next week with highs approaching the upper 60s again.
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Tuesday, October 29 Observations:
A strong cold air mass entered the northeast US, with widespread cold temperatures, as the boundary between colder temperatures and near average temperatures set up over the area. Temperatures peaked in the upper 40s-mid 50s in the northern half of the area, and the mid 50s to near 60 degrees in the southern half. The highest temperature was 60 degrees in Somerset, NJ, and the coolest high temperature was 48 degrees in Yorktown Heights, NY, marking the first sub-50 high temperature in the area this fall.
Tonight – Friday: Rain, Wind, Warmer
Forecast Analysis: A strong upper level low is currently exiting the western US, with a low pressure developing in the central US producing widespread rain and severe weather. Ahead of this upper level low, ridging is amplifying over the region, with a strong southwesterly flow advecting a mild air mass into the region, with 850mb temperatures warming up to the 10-14C range. The central US shortwave will then interact with another trough entering the western US and a strong upper level low in Canada, and will rapidly track to the northeast while becoming negatively tilted and quickly intensifying, with the surface low pressure deepening from about 996 mb to about 972 mb in just 12 hours as it tracks through Michigan and into Canada. The low level jet will strengthen, with 925mb winds near 60-70 knots, supporting strong wind gusts across the region. Most of the rain will remain inland closer to the low pressure, however, with clearing skies and decreasing winds expected on Friday afternoon and evening after the frontal passage.
Forecast for NYC Area: Mostly cloudy skies will continue into Halloween, with a breezy south wind at 8-15 mph, gusting up to 20-30 mph, with generally dry conditions aside from scattered showers north and west of NYC around 11 AM-2 PM. Highs are expected to reach the low to mid 60s across the area. Temperatures will struggle to drop overnight, briefly doing so early on before rising towards the morning, as rain gradually develops west of NYC and winds increase. The peak of the storm is expected on Friday morning with a strong south wind at 15-30 mph, gusting to/over 40 mph, especially east of NYC, along with occasional showers across the area. Rain is expected to end around 11 AM-1 PM west of NYC and 2-4 PM east of NYC, with rain totals generally around 1/4 to 1/2 inch, locally below 1/4 inch south/east of NYC and above 1/2 inch for interior northwest areas. With most of the rain falling after 12 AM Friday, however, October will still be on track for a top 10 driest month on record, with the only notable rain event this month having occurred on the 7th. Clearing skies are then expected for the rest of the day with decreasing winds along with unseasonably warm highs, peaking in the mid 60s to low 70s across the area.