Oct 24, 2013 Brief Update

[notice]Note: The next full forecast discussion and blog update will be posted tomorrow.[/notice]

Forecast Overview:

northeastAfter a weak coastal low brushed the region yesterday, producing little rainfall as has become the trend with the current drier than average pattern, the coldest air mass entered the region this fall, with widespread high temperatures in the 50s yesterday occurring for the first time since late May. Additionally, widespread temperatures in the 30s were observed this morning, with the first widespread frost of the year occurring outside of New York City and the immediate coast. Temperatures fell as low as 26 degrees in Sussex, NJ and 29 degrees in Westhampton Beach, NY. These chilly temperatures will continue through Saturday, with highs in the upper 40s-low 50s inland and the low-mid 50s for the rest of the area. The coolest temperatures are expected tonight and on Friday night, falling into the mid to upper 20s inland, low 30s in the north/west suburbs and southern CT, upper 20s to low 30s in interior Long Island, and mid to upper 30s in NYC and the immediate coast. A breezy west wind is expected today and tomorrow, transitioning to the southwest on Saturday.

A weak low pressure will stay north of the area on Sunday, keeping its associated rain and snow showers to the north as well, with high temperatures warming up into the mid to upper 50s for most. By the weekend and early next week, a strong upper level low will enter the southwest US, resulting in a widespread ridge aloft covering the eastern and southern US; the positioning of the surface high pressure will limit how warm temperatures get, however, as it is expected to initially stay north of the region, keeping high temperatures in the 50s and lows in the 30s, perhaps the mid-upper 20s inland. By late next week, however, the high pressure is expected to shift east, and depending on the development of a low pressure in the west-central US that may bring a cold front into the region, temperatures may warm back up into the 60s again across the region. If the low pressure tracks far east enough to affect the area as opposed to keeping the majority of the rain to the north and west, it would do so late next week, around October 31-November 2. More information will be posted on next week’s outlook with tomorrow’s forecast discussion.

Continue reading for observations from Wednesday, October 23.

 


<< October 22 | October 23 | October 24 >>

Wednesday, October 23 Observations:

10.23.13Behind Tuesday’s cold front, a weak low pressure developed off the coast, producing light rain which stayed mostly south of the area, yet again continuing the very dry pattern with the area on track for one of, if not the driest Octobers on record. A more notable aspect of Wednesday’s weather, however, was the temperatures; with a much cooler air mass, with 850mb temperatures near 0C, and clouds due to the coastal low, temperatures only peaked in the low to mid 50s across the area, making it the first widespread sub-60 degree day across the area since late May, but later than average in October; last year such temperatures have been observed multiple times in the first half of the month. The highest temperature was 58 degrees in Somerset, NJ, and the coolest high temperature was 50 degrees in New London, CT.

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