Warmer than average temperatures continue again today and tomorrow before a dry cold front moves through on Tuesday, with a gradual cool down beginning around then, with scattered showers mainly east of NYC on Wednesday followed by the peak of the cooler temperatures on Friday and Saturday with temperatures a few degrees below average. A brief moderation in temperatures is expected by the weekend, but with uncertainty regarding whether below average temperatures return afterwards.
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Sunday, October 20 Observations:
As another frontal system exited the region, yet again keeping most of the rain east and west of the area, temperatures slightly cooled down as a weak cool air mass struggled to enter the region, but was quickly removed. Partly sunny skies were observed with highs in the low to mid 60s across the area. The highest temperature was 65 degrees in Newark, NJ, and the coolest high temperature was 60 degrees in Danbury, CT and Yorktown Heights, NY.
Today – Thursday: Slowly Cooling Down
Today is expected to be the warmest day of the week; following strong radiational cooling last night, with Sussex, NJ falling to 32 degrees and Westhampton Beach in Long Island to 30 degrees, more sunshine will return today with a southwest wind and a warmer air mass advecting into the region, bringing widespread highs in the mid 60s again. This time, however, the warmer air mass won’t settle over the region, as a cold front will move through on Tuesday night, producing little to rain but with temperatures cooling down. Highs on Tuesday are expected to reach the mid-upper 50s inland and low-mid 60s further east, with lows overnight in the mid to upper 30s inland.
A shortwave trough will move through the region on Wednesday, producing areas of light rain mainly east of NYC in the morning hours, with otherwise mostly cloudy skies and highs reaching the mid 50s for most of the area. Rain totals are generally expected to stay under 1/4 inch, perhaps locally up to 1/2 inch in Long Island; this would make it the second most significant rain event of this month. Skies will clear overnight with temperatures cooling down into the 30s away from NYC and the coast. Despite the shortwave trough moving through, however, the trough will struggle to fully expand into the region throughout this time frame, and 850mb temperatures look to cool down less than previously modeled, failing to reach -4C except for a brief 24-hour window on Friday night with -4 to -5C 850mb temps, which is not unusual for this time of the year. With the slower entrance of the trough, the forecast temperatures for Thursday have been adjusted upwards, with highs in the low 50s inland and the mid to locally upper 50s for the rest of the area, which is several degrees below average but also several degrees warmer than what the model guidance showed over the last few days.