A strong warm air mass will move through today, bringing warm temperatures into the low to mid 80s with near record highs possible for some locations. Temperatures will remain mostly above average with precipitation below average through the next 1-2 weeks with isolated storms possible on Friday and more widespread storms on Monday-Tuesday, but with the next cold front struggling to move through the region.
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Tuesday, October 1 Observations:
The mostly sunny and slightly cooler than average pattern last week began to break down as a much warmer air mass approached from the west, which along with mostly sunny skies, west winds and a relatively dry air mass resulted in widespread warmer than average temperatures, and several degrees warmer than forecast for parts of the area, reaching the upper 70s to low 80s for most. The highest temperature was 84 degrees in Newark, NJ, and the coolest high temperature was 74 degrees in Montauk, NY.
This Week: Mid 80s Today; Isolated Storms Friday
A strong warm air mass with temperatures at 850 millibars up to 16C is currently moving through the region, which along with the recent dry conditions, mainly sunny skies, west winds and a relatively dry air mass should allow for temperatures to rise into the low to mid 80s away from the coast, at least 10-15 degrees above average. Temperatures may approach and/or reach record high temperatures in Islip, NY (80 degrees, 2002), Newark, NJ (86 degrees, 2002), and JFK airport (82 degrees, 2002).
A weak, dry cold front will move through tonight, with temperatures on Thursday slightly cooling down into the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. Cloud cover will increase overnight and into Friday as a warm front moves through the region but likely stalls near the area. Scattered thunderstorms are possible on Friday afternoon and evening, likely focusing north of NYC but with isolated storms possible in northern NJ, NYC and Long Island as well. Temperatures are expected to be similar to those of Thursday, if not slightly cooler east of NYC and slightly warmer west of NYC.