Oct 2, 2013: Warm, Dry Pattern Continues

Forecast Highlights:

gfs_namer_120_500_vort_ht_2A strong warm air mass will move through today, bringing warm temperatures into the low to mid 80s with near record highs possible for some locations. Temperatures will remain mostly above average with precipitation below average through the next 1-2 weeks with isolated storms possible on Friday and more widespread storms on Monday-Tuesday, but with the next cold front struggling to move through the region.


<< September 30 | October 1 | October 2 >>

Tuesday, October 1 Observations:

10.1.13The mostly sunny and slightly cooler than average pattern last week began to break down as a much warmer air mass approached from the west, which along with mostly sunny skies, west winds and a relatively dry air mass resulted in widespread warmer than average temperatures, and several degrees warmer than forecast for parts of the area, reaching the upper 70s to low 80s for most. The highest temperature was 84 degrees in Newark, NJ, and the coolest high temperature was 74 degrees in Montauk, NY.



This Week: Mid 80s Today; Isolated Storms Friday

A strong warm air mass with temperatures at 850 millibars up to 16C is currently moving through the region, which along with the recent dry conditions, mainly sunny skies, west winds and a relatively dry air mass should allow for temperatures to rise into the low to mid 80s away from the coast, at least 10-15 degrees above average. Temperatures may approach and/or reach record high temperatures in Islip, NY (80 degrees, 2002), Newark, NJ (86 degrees, 2002), and JFK airport (82 degrees, 2002).

A weak, dry cold front will move through tonight, with temperatures on Thursday slightly cooling down into the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. Cloud cover will increase overnight and into Friday as a warm front moves through the region but likely stalls near the area. Scattered thunderstorms are possible on Friday afternoon and evening, likely focusing north of NYC but with isolated storms possible in northern NJ, NYC and Long Island as well. Temperatures are expected to be similar to those of Thursday, if not slightly cooler east of NYC and slightly warmer west of NYC.


Weekend – Next Week: Rain Approaches On Monday-Tuesday

Following the Friday warm front passage, the front is likely to stall near the area, with locations east of NYC with slightly cooler temperatures in the mid to possibly upper 70s, and locations from NYC and further west likely in the upper 70s to possibly low 80s but with temperatures subject to some changes. A strong low pressure will develop in the Midwest during the late week and weekend, bringing a widespread rainstorm and even a potential snowstorm to that region, with the cold front then gradually approaching the region. With ridging likely to persist near the East Coast, along with the trough splitting with the northern end quickly retreating into Canada, the cold front is expected to slow down as it approaches the region, with any rain likely to be delayed until Monday. As such, the forecast for Sunday has been changed to reflect dry conditions and partly cloudy skies, with the high probability of rain delayed to Monday.

The main uncertainty is regarding the exact setup of the trough, which will have an impact on the pattern for next week. Western Atlantic ridging is likely to make a comeback with ridging persisting near the East Coast, a setup that was present in July but largely absent in August and September, which is likely to keep the shortwave trough left behind from the weekend trough near or west of the area, as it lifts northeast with ridging likely to build behind it. Rain is likely on Monday into Tuesday with the frontal passage and the leftover shortwave trough, which may pick up some tropical moisture from a tropical disturbance currently in the Caribbean which is expected to track into the Gulf of Mexico, but with uncertainty regarding how much rain affects the area; this will be monitored closely over the next few days, as the region has been drier than average recently, especially Long Island and Connecticut.

Due to the persistent ridging and another trough likely to dig into the western or central US by the late week, temperatures will struggle to cool down before warming up again in the mid to late week, with temperatures likely to remain above average with highs still in the 70s, possibly reaching the 80s for some in the warmer potential scenario; given current indications, this month is likely to end up warmer than average. The next potential for rain may take place next weekend or early the following week as the next frontal system potentially approaches. Stay tuned for more information on next week’s outlook.

2 thoughts on “Oct 2, 2013: Warm, Dry Pattern Continues

  1. Anonymous Reply

    Are the thunderstorms on Friday due to a back door cold front and the warm front colliding?

    • NYC Area Weather Post authorReply

      The region is being affected by the same frontal boundary from today through the weekend; today’s weak cold front is moving through without producing rain with a lack of moisture, while widespread cloud cover stayed north of the area, and will retreat back north on Friday as a warm front, which then stalls nearby during the weekend. I am currently thinking NYC stays near the edge of the frontal boundary, with New England (especially north of CT) seeing cooler temperatures and more widespread cloud cover as the warm front struggles to expand much northeast of NYC.

      (Edit: The forecast for tomorrow was intended to imply a cold front moving through tonight ending up to the south on Thursday, not a separate frontal system approaching; I changed the wording to better reflect this.)

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