Oct 1, 2013: 80s Return Today, Tomorrow

Forecast Highlights:

October witemp36ll be off to a warm start across the region as a strong warm air mass moves in, with highs reaching the 75-80 degree range today and the 80-85 degree range tomorrow. A slight cool down will occur in the late week as a back door cold front approaches, with rain likely to return towards Sunday night into Monday, followed by another brief cool down. (Image credit: PSU e-Wall)


 


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Monday, September 30 Observations:

9.30.13In between a collapsing cold front to the west and a coastal low staying to the east, the region was once again under dry conditions, with morning lows in the 40s inland and 50s elsewhere and daytime highs rising into the low 70s range for most. The highest temperature was 76 degrees in Somerset, NJ, and the coolest high temperature was 68 degrees in Montauk, NY.

 

 

 


 

This Week: Dry, Warmer; 80 Degrees On Wednesday

With a strong trough quickly moving east through southern Canada, a relatively zonal flow is present aloft over and north of the region, with a warm air mass from the Midwest spreading into the region, bringing warmer than average temperatures by up to 8-14 degrees. Today and tomorrow will start out mostly sunny with west winds, and highs peaking in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees today, and the low to mid 80s on Wednesday. A frontal boundary will spread into the region on Thursday, and is expected to end up close to the area with scattered thunderstorms near or north of NYC on Thursday night into Friday. The main uncertainty is regarding whether the back door cold front enters the area and if so, then how close it gets to NYC; at this time, I am thinking the back door cold front moves into Connecticut and Long Island but stays north/east of NYC; as such, I lowered forecast temperatures north and east of NYC for the late week into Saturday into the low-mid 70s while keeping NYC and further west/south in the upper 70s to possibly low 80s.

 

Weekend – Next Week: Rain Returns; Impact Uncertain

By the weekend, a strong low pressure will organize in the Midwest, producing heavy rain and wind in that region; some of the latest model guidance even suggests the possibility of snow in that region, which earlier this year continued to observe snow into May. The low pressure will gradually track east towards the region, but with uncertainty regarding the timing and setup of the trough and low pressure, with scenarios ranging from a consolidated system that quickly moves through with heavy rain, to a slower and less consolidated trough that possibly becomes a closed upper level low west of the region, with a slower frontal passage leading to clouds and occasional rain persisting into the early week in the region. There is high confidence that rain falls in the area, but lower confidence regarding the exact timing and intensity; at this time, I delayed rain probabilities into Sunday night and Monday, favoring a slower frontal passage, with rain possibly lingering into Tuesday should a more significant cutoff upper level low become involved. Stay tuned for more information on the weekend and early week outlook.

A brief cool down is likely towards early-mid next week, with temperatures likely returning at least to near average, followed by a mid-possibly late week warm up, but with more uncertainty for the late week pattern partially depending on how the early week trough sets up among other factors involved; while ridging in the eastern US is likely around the mid to possibly late week with a generally progressive pattern, there are possible indications of more significant amplification of the pattern. More information will be posted on next week’s outlook as details become clearer.

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