October will be off to a warm start across the region as a strong warm air mass moves in, with highs reaching the 75-80 degree range today and the 80-85 degree range tomorrow. A slight cool down will occur in the late week as a back door cold front approaches, with rain likely to return towards Sunday night into Monday, followed by another brief cool down. (Image credit: PSU e-Wall)
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Monday, September 30 Observations:
In between a collapsing cold front to the west and a coastal low staying to the east, the region was once again under dry conditions, with morning lows in the 40s inland and 50s elsewhere and daytime highs rising into the low 70s range for most. The highest temperature was 76 degrees in Somerset, NJ, and the coolest high temperature was 68 degrees in Montauk, NY.
This Week: Dry, Warmer; 80 Degrees On Wednesday
With a strong trough quickly moving east through southern Canada, a relatively zonal flow is present aloft over and north of the region, with a warm air mass from the Midwest spreading into the region, bringing warmer than average temperatures by up to 8-14 degrees. Today and tomorrow will start out mostly sunny with west winds, and highs peaking in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees today, and the low to mid 80s on Wednesday. A frontal boundary will spread into the region on Thursday, and is expected to end up close to the area with scattered thunderstorms near or north of NYC on Thursday night into Friday. The main uncertainty is regarding whether the back door cold front enters the area and if so, then how close it gets to NYC; at this time, I am thinking the back door cold front moves into Connecticut and Long Island but stays north/east of NYC; as such, I lowered forecast temperatures north and east of NYC for the late week into Saturday into the low-mid 70s while keeping NYC and further west/south in the upper 70s to possibly low 80s.