Sept 7, 2013: Warm, Humid Again This Week

Forecast Highlights:

gfs_namer_078_500_vort_htThe next 7-10 days continue with a fluctuating temperature trend, going back and forth between chilly and warm temperatures. After a chilly morning, warmer temperatures will briefly return this weekend, followed by another cool down on Sunday night-Monday. A short yet strong surge of heat will reach the region on Tuesday through Thursday, with widespread humidity and highs in the 80s, possibly approaching 90 degrees, followed by a much cooler weekend with lows in the 40s again.

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Friday, September 6 Observations:

9.6.13A strong cool air mass entered the region, bringing below average temperatures and fall-like conditions, with a high pressure providing the area with mostly sunny skies. Chilly morning temperatures were observed, in the 40s away from NYC and the coast, getting as low as 41 degrees in Sussex, NJ and 43 degrees in Danbury, CT. Daytime highs were cooler than average as well, peaking in the upper 60s to low 70s across the area. The highest temperature was 73 degrees in Newark, NJ, and the coolest high temperature was 68 degrees in Danbury, CT and New London, CT.



Today – Monday: Briefly Warmer, Then Chilly Again

As the trough from yesterday exited the region, a southwest flow is setting up for today, with a warmer air mass returning and temperatures rising into the mid-upper 70s across the area. This warmer air mass is only short lasting, however, as a cold front is already entering the Northeast US, associated with another strong cool air mass, which will produce scattered thunderstorms mostly north of NYC tonight into Sunday morning. The cold front will clear the area by Sunday afternoon, with clearing cloud cover expected along with a breezy NW wind at 8-15 mph as a much cooler air mass advects into the region again, in a setup similar to that of Thursday into Friday. High temperatures are expected to range from the mid 70s inland to the low 80s near NYC.

The cool air mass will quickly move through the region on Sunday night into Monday, with temperatures overnight falling into the low 40s inland, mid to upper 40s in the north/west suburbs and southern CT, upper 40s to low 50s in Long Island away from the coast, and low-mid 50s in NYC and the coast. Mainly sunny skies are expected again on Monday with a light south wind and highs peaking in the upper 60s-low 70s inland and the low-mid 70s for the rest of the area.


Tuesday – Thursday: Warm, Humid Again

While meteorological summer ended a week ago, summer-like conditions are not over yet, as a brief surge of heat and humidity affects the region during the middle of next week. The high pressure that will provide the chilly and sunny conditions for Monday will shift to the east, setting up for a southwest flow, as a low pressure develops in the Midwest and tracks towards Canada, shifting ridging into the eastern half of the US with a much warmer and humid air mass advecting into the region, as 850mb temperatures rise to at least 18C. The warm front is expected to move through on Tuesday; the strongest warm air advection will stay to the north, and not enough moisture is likely for widespread precipitation, although isolated thunderstorms can’t be ruled out north of NYC early on Tuesday. Once the front clears the area, warmer and much more humid conditions will return for Tuesday, with partly sunny skies and highs peaking in the upper 70s to low 80s from NYC and further north/west, mid-upper 70s east of NYC, and dew points climbing into the mid 60s. Overnight lows are expected to struggle falling below 65 degrees inland and 70 degrees in NYC.

The warmest temperatures are expected on Wednesday, when the warmest temperatures aloft will be present near 18C, along with partial sunshine to allow for temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 80s away from the coast. The possibility is there in the warmer case scenario that parts of NE NJ may reach 90 degrees, although it remains uncertain at this time. With dew points in the upper 60s, humid conditions are expected as well with heat index values a few degrees higher. A strong cold front will move through the region on Thursday, likely producing scattered to widespread thunderstorms, mainly north and west of NYC, with highs slightly cooling down into the low-mid 80s but with warmer overnight lows, in the upper 60s to low 70s across most of the area.


Friday – Next Week: Cooler Weekend, Then Warming Up

Behind Thursday’s cold front, another strong cool air mass will drop into the region, bringing drier conditions, sunshine and chilly temperatures again. There is some uncertainty regarding how strong the cool air mass will end up and how far south it will drop, which will determine how low temperatures get, although at this time lows are likely to fall into the 40s inland with highs in the mid 60s-low 70s across the area, with the temperature outlook subject to some changes. As mentioned with yesterday’s pattern outlook, however, the high pressure will shift east of the region as well, allowing for another surge of warmer temperatures to reach the area towards early the following week, with temperatures warming back up to at least near to slightly above average. More information will be posted on the longer range outlook over the next few days.

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