Sept 30, 2013: Dry, Warm Week Ahead

Forecast Highlights:

northeastA warm air mass will return into the region this week, with temperatures warming up into the upper 70s to mid 80s range by Wednesday. Slightly cooler temperatures will continue through the rest of the week into next weekend with skies generally mostly sunny with continued dry conditions. The next cold front will arrive by Sunday into Monday, but with uncertainty regarding whether heavy rain actually reaches the area this time.



 


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Sunday, September 29 Observations:

9.29.13Little changes were observed in the overall setup as a high pressure remained over the region, with morning lows in the 40s inland and 50s elsewhere, along with skies generally mostly sunny with highs rising into the upper 60s-low 70s east of NYC and low-mid 70s from NYC and further west. The highest temperature was 74 degrees in Teterboro, NJ, and the coolest high temperature was 64 degrees in Montauk, NY.

 

 


 

This Week: Dry, Warmer; Low-Mid 80s On Wednesday

As of this morning, the area remains under a broad high pressure, placed in between two storms that will fail to reach the region as a stalled frontal boundary to the west gradually dissipates today, and a coastal low to the east stays well offshore, brushing eastern New England with wind but little to no rain. The dry pattern will continue this week with generally mostly sunny skies and a high pressure in place, bringing the second consecutive week with no rainfall in the area.

The notable aspect of this week’s forecast is the return of warmer than average temperatures, as a strong air mass from the Midwest reaches the region with little moderation, which along with sunny skies, a westerly wind around 5-10 mph and a relatively dry air mass with dew points in the 55-60 degree range should allow for temperatures to reach the low to mid 80s away from the coast on Wednesday, which is at least 10-13 degrees warmer than average. A slight cool down in temperatures is expected for Thursday and Friday as a back door cold front moves through, tracking back north as a warm front on Friday with an increase in cloud cover but no rain likely, but struggling to expand much to the north/east of the area. At this time, locations from NYC and further west and south are likely to stay in the upper 70s to low 80s in the late week, slightly warming up on Saturday, although the temperature outlook is more uncertain towards Connecticut and Long Island which may have more impact from the back door cold front and may end up slightly cooler than forecast.

 

Weekend – Next Week: Rain Approaches, But Impacts Uncertain

By the late week into the weekend, a strong low pressure is expected to organize in the Midwest region with widespread heavy rain and wind, leading to amplifying ridging over the region and a cold front organizing and gradually tracking east towards the region, with some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico becoming involved to result in moderate-possibly heavy rain along the front. From there, however, the forecast becomes less certain regarding impacts in the region. The pattern aloft remains progressive with the jet stream still to the north, and there are more signals for the low pressure to continue tracking due NE into Canada while the southern part of the front attempts to split from the trough into a closed upper level low. This setup would keep the heaviest rains to the north and south of the region, and if verifies would result in lighter rain in the area. This possibility needs to be monitored closely over the next few days, considering that by the time this storm arrives it will have been 2 weeks since the previous rain event, and the upcoming pattern beyond the early week cold front is likely to remain progressive with above average temperatures in the region. While at the very least, some rain is expected to affect the area and the probability of rain falling in this time frame remains high, I slightly lowered the 7-day forecast rain probabilities due to the uncertainty with the timing and the possible closed upper level low. Stay tuned for more information on the weekend outlook over the next few days.

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