Temperatures warmed back up into the 70s earlier this week, although a back door cold front is keeping temperatures in the low to mid 70s through the rest of the week and the weekend, with continued mostly sunny skies expected through Sunday. The next cold front will move through on Monday with little to no rain, followed by another stretch of dry conditions and gradually warming temperatures (image credit: NCEP MAG).
Today – Weekend: Seasonable, Dry
The latest synoptic setup consists of a strong upper level low near Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, with strong ridging amplifying over the central US into southeastern Canada in response to a strong trough over the northwest US, which is currently bringing the first major snowstorm of the season to the higher elevations in the NW US. A shortwave trough is currently over the Ohio Valley, which will continue to dive southeast into the Atlantic Ocean as ridging builds up to its north. While this leads to a strong -NAO setup, the orientation of the ridging along with the western troughing (-PNA) blocks the region from any new cold air source, with the only cold air source available being the stale cool air mass over Atlantic Canada from the departing strong upper level low, which then slides southwest into the region with 850mb temperatures near 6-8C as ridging builds up to its north and keeps the stale cool air mass trapped over the region until the next cold front on Monday. This will lead to temperatures persisting in the low to mid 70s for highs through the late week and the weekend along with mostly sunny skies.
The forecast for the NYC area, as a result of the previously mentioned setup, consists of mostly sunny skies continuing through Sunday, with high temperatures generally in the low to mid 70s. Overnight lows will stay in the 40s inland and the 50s closer to the immediate NYC area and the coast.