Sept 17, 2013: Chilly Tonight, Then Warming Up

Forecast Highlights:

gfs_namer_072_850_temp_mslp_precipA strong cool air mass is currently located over the region, with chilly morning temperatures as low as 37 degrees in Sussex, NJ. Chilly temperatures will continue today, with a warming trend beginning on Wednesday through the weekend. The next cold front will move through around Sunday with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible, followed by a cooler start to next week.


<< September 15 | September 16 | September 17 >>

Monday, September 16 Observations:

9.16.13A cold front moved through the region, keeping temperatures again below average ahead of the next incoming trough. A line of showers moved through the area in the morning hours mostly before 12 PM, with partly to mostly cloudy skies afterwards and a few isolated showers mostly north of the area in the evening. Temperatures were slightly warmer than expected, peaking in the low to mid 70s across the area except for eastern Long Island and the higher elevations inland (NW NJ, west CT) in the upper 60s. The highest temperature was 75 degrees in Teterboro, NJ and JFK airport, and the coolest high temperature was 69 degrees in multiple locations.



Today – Friday: Chilly, Frost Inland, Then Warming Up

A cool air mass remains in place this morning, with 850mb temperatures down to near 4C. A strong high pressure entered the region last night, with clearing skies and chilly temperatures, falling to 37 degrees in Sussex, NJ, and 50 degrees in Central Park, making it the coolest mid-September morning since 9/16/2007, also with 50 degrees. With the high pressure overhead, sunny skies are expected today with high temperatures peaking in the low to mid 60s inland and the mid to upper 60s for the rest of the area. The high pressure will remain in place tonight, providing the area with clear skies leading to strong radiational cooling, with some spots away from the coast cooler than this morning; lows are expected to reach the mid to upper 30s inland (NW NJ, Orange county), upper 30s to low 40s in the Pine Barrens of Long Island, low to mid 40s in southern CT, Rockland county in NY and interior northeast NJ, mid to upper 40s in the rest of Long Island and parts of NE NJ just west of NYC, and the upper 40s-low 50s in NYC. Frost is possible tonight inland and possibly in the Pine Barrens.

By Wednesday, the high pressure will begin to slide to the east, with the air mass gradually moderating as the trough departs and ridging builds into the eastern US. Sunny skies are expected again on Wednesday with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s inland and the low 70s for the rest of the area, with overnight lows in the low-mid 40s inland and the mid-upper 40s away from NYC and the immediate coast. Thursday and Friday will be the warmest days of the week, with highs in the low-mid 70s inland and near the immediate coast, and the mid-upper 70s for the rest of the area.


Weekend – Next Week: Frontal Passage, Then Cooler Start To Week

The next cold front will move through on Sunday; the front looks to slow down more than previously anticipated, and the highest chance of rain is now expected on Saturday night, with partly cloudy skies on Saturday and highs similar to those of Friday. With the low pressure placed well to the north over central Canada and tracking northeast, the strongest dynamics will be focused well to the north, with the front weakening and slowing down as it reaches the region. Currently, most operational model runs continue to push the front offshore with cooler temperatures and sunny skies for the early week, with highs in the upper 60s-low 70s and lows in the 40s away from the coast, although the GFS has shown the possibility for a low pressure with tropical connections to develop near the Gulf of Mexico and possibly affect the area, but not as a tropical cyclone, as a part of the trough splits and closes off south of the area. At this time, the forecast for late Sunday and Monday has been kept dry, but this possibility will be monitored. Stay tuned for more information on the medium range outlook over the next few days.

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