Sept 16, 2013: Interior Frost Possible Tues Night

Forecast Highlights:

northeast2A cold front moved through the area this morning, producing light rain showers, with chilly temperatures expected to continue through Wednesday as highs only reach the mid-upper 60s and lows fall into the 40s away from NYC and the 30s inland, where frost is possible on Tuesday night along with the Long Island Pine Barrens. Warmer temperatures will return for the late week ahead of scattered storms on Saturday and/or Sunday.

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Sunday, September 15 Observations:

9.15.13The trough that brought unseasonably cool temperatures to the area on Saturday began moving out, but with clear skies and radiational cooling resulting in chilly morning temperatures with lows down to 38 degrees in Sussex, NJ and mid 40s getting as far south as the close suburbs of NYC, with Teterboro, NJ near 46 degrees. The Pine Barrens of Long Island were cool as well, with lows near 40 degrees in Westhampton Beach. Newark, NJ fell one degrees short of its record low of 47 degrees, set in 1975.

Mostly sunny skies were observed during the day with high temperatures reaching the upper 60s-low 70s north and east of NYC and the low to mid 70s in NYC and northern NJ. The highest temperature was 74 degrees in Newark, NJ, and the coolest high temperature was 67 degrees in Montauk, NY. High temperatures were 3-5 degrees below average, and low temperatures were 5-12 degrees below average.



Today – Tuesday Night: Chilly, Frost Possible Inland

A cold front moved through the area this morning, with a line of light to moderate rain affecting the area before noon with rain totals generally under 1/4 inch. The latest radar, shown at the top of this post, shows this line is to the south and east of NYC, and will continue to progress southeast with mostly cloudy skies and isolated showers for the rest of the day, with the highest probability of isolated showers north of NYC. A strong cool air mass will enter the region tonight with temperatures at the 850 millibar layer as low as 3C, which is unseasonably cool for this time of the year, with surface temperatures at least 10 degrees below average. With the cold air advection and clearing skies, temperatures tonight will fall into the upper 30s inland, mid 40s in the north/west suburbs of NYC and southern CT, mid to upper 40s in Long Island, and the upper 40s-low 50s in NYC.

As a high pressure builds overhead, sunny skies are expected for Tuesday with highs in the low-mid 60s inland and the mid to upper 60s for the rest of the area. Clear skies and light winds are expected overnight, a setup supporting strong radiational cooling with overnight lows in the mid-upper 30s inland, low-mid 40s in the interior suburbs of NYC, Pine Barrens of LI, and southern CT away from the coast; mid-upper 40s in the rest of Long Island and southern CT, and the upper 40s to low 50s in NYC and the immediate coast. With the cool temperatures, frost is possible towards NW NJ/interior SE NY and the Pine Barrens in Long Island, and has been mentioned in the 7-Day Forecast.


Wednesday – Next Weekend: Warmer, Some Storms Likely

As the high pressure slides east of the area and ridging rebuilds into the region, warmer temperatures will return into the area with temperatures rising to at least slightly above average levels. Mostly sunny skies are likely to continue through Wednesday and Thursday, with highs on Wednesday rising into the upper 60s to low 70s inland and the low 70s elsewhere, and the low-mid 70s on Thursday. The warmest temperatures are expected on Friday, with highs peaking in the mid to upper 70s for most of the area, possibly approaching 80 degrees in northeast NJ.

The next cold front will approach the area on Saturday and Sunday as a strong low pressure develops over south central Canada and tracks northeast. At this time, the latest thinking is for this trough to mostly remain north of the area, with the cold front weakening as it progresses east keeping the heaviest precipitation to the north of the area; regardless, at least some showers and thunderstorms are possible across the area towards Saturday afternoon and/or the overnight hours into early Sunday. Temperatures will cool down again into early next week with highs likely back into at least the lower 70s range, but with uncertainty regarding the southern extent of the trough, with the temperature outlook subject to change. A warming trend is likely towards the second half of next week as ridging spreads east ahead of the next trough gradually approaching the eastern half of the US and Canada. More information will be posted on the long range over the next few days.

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