Aug 8, 2013: More Storms Today-Tomorrow, Then Drier

Forecast Highlights:

northeast10A slow moving cold front is approaching the area, producing scattered showers across the region today and especially on Friday as high temperatures warm up to near average and overnight lows to above average. The front will move through on Friday night, with drier conditions and seasonable temperatures for the weekend. Aside from a cold front on Tuesday, dry conditions are likely to continue through most of next week as well.





[notice]As a new feature, weekly polls are now being posted in the right side of the blog. A new poll has been opened regarding additional 90+ degree days this year; previous poll results can be found in the poll archive page.[/notice]

Today – Friday Night: Scattered Showers, Storms Continue

Last night, a weakening area of showers and thunderstorms moved through the area, collapsing as it reached and went east of NYC. Additional scattered showers and storms are expected today and especially on Friday, with storms tomorrow capable of producing heavy rain, up to and locally over 1 inch, although widespread heavy rain and flash flooding is not expected at this time. High temperatures are generally expected to reach the upper 70s to low 80s across the area, with parts of the immediate NYC area reaching the mid 80s. Although temperatures will remain not far from average, overnight lows will be above average, however, ranging from the mid 60s inland to the low 70s near NYC; the low temperatures were the main factor behind some recent above average months, such as July when overnight lows were primarily in the 70s. The cold front is expected to move through on Friday night, pushing the rain offshore.

Saturday – Next Week: Cooling Down, Tuesday Storms Likely

Behind the front, a breezy west wind is expected to set up for Saturday; the warm air mass will still be in place aloft, however, with 850mb temperatures up to 15C, which along with the west wind and partial sunshine should allow for temperatures to reach the mid to upper 80s across the area, possibly reaching 90 degrees in the immediate NYC area. The warm air mass aloft will be pushed offshore overnight as a high pressure builds in, with lows falling into the low-mid 60s across most of the area and the upper 50s inland. Mostly sunny skies are expected for Sunday and Monday with highs reaching the upper 70s to low 80s across the area with overnight lows ranging from the upper 50s inland to the mid-upper 60s near NYC. This air mass will not be as cold as last weekend, with 850mb temperatures near/slightly over 10C, and temperatures should end up at least slightly below average.

Another shortwave trough will dig into the Great Lakes on Monday and the Northeast on Tuesday, bringing another brief surge of a warmer and more humid air mass into the region. Temperatures are likely to return into the low-mid 80s on Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms across the region, possibly strong especially west of NYC, with the front moving through overnight, followed by another cool air mass for Wednesday-Friday. This air mass is likely to be cooler compared to Sunday-Monday as the trough is likely to be deeper as well, with highs in the mid 70s-low 80s and lows in the 50s away from NYC and the immediate coast likely, although the temperature outlook is subject to some changes. These cooler temperatures are likely to persist through the late week, with a gradual warm up likely towards next weekend and increasing probability of rain towards either the weekend or early the following week.

Going into the longer range, the long range model guidance indicates a gradual increase in heights aloft, although the mean trough remains over the east-central US region. The current cooler than average pattern is not expected at this time to persist through the rest of the month and into the fall with little periods of above average temperatures, as will be explained in more detail with the fall outlook at the end of this month, with warmer temperatures possible again towards the last 7-10 days of August and possibly into September, although sustained above average temperatures are unlikely during this pattern.


<< August 5 | August 6 | August 7 | August 8 >>


Tuesday, August 6 Observations:

8.6.13 - CopyThe trough that was in place on August 4-5 began to gradually lift out, with temperatures slightly warming up across the region. Partly sunny skies were observed with high temperatures reaching the upper 70s to low 80s from NYC and further north/west and the mid-upper 70s in Long Island and southern CT. The highest temperature was 83 degrees in Teterboro, NJ, and the lowest high temperature was 75 degrees in New London, CT.


Wednesday, August 7 Observations:

8.7.13 - CopyA warm front slowly approached the area, bringing increased cloud cover and scattered showers into the region. Most showers stayed west of NYC during the day, with a weakening severe thunderstorm in Pennsylvania moving through the area at night, producing light-moderate rain generally under 1/4 inch. Temperatures were slightly warmer than expected, peaking in the low 80s in the immediate NYC area and the mid-upper 70s elsewhere. The highest temperature was 82 degrees in Teterboro and LaGuardia, and the lowest high temperature was 74 degrees in Port Jervis, NY.


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