Aug 29, 2013: Stormy Sun-Tue, Then Cooler

Forecast Highlights:

northeast5Slightly cooler temperatures are expected across the area today with a northeast flow, but with temperatures warming back into the mid 80s with increased humidity by Saturday as scattered storms approach the region, affecting the area on Sunday through Tuesday ahead of a frontal passage. Slightly cooler temperatures and less humidity will return for the mid-late week with the possibility of another cool down towards next weekend.



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Wednesday, August 28 Observations:

8.28.13A weakening complex of thunderstorms entered western Pennsylvania and Virginia in the morning hours, with partly to mostly cloudy skies in the area along with scattered thunderstorms mainly west and north of NYC; these storms, however, exceeded the expectation, drifting or nearly stalling over certain locations in northern NJ and SE NY, especially in Essex, Passaic and Orange counties, with totals locally as high as 1-2 inches of rain. Temperatures were mild again across most of the area, in the low to mid 80s inland and the mid to upper 80s in the immediate NYC area and western Long Island, except for the coast with upper 70s-low 80s, but with much cooler temperatures towards central NJ in the mid-upper 70s for highs. The highest temperature was 87 degrees in Teterboro, NJ, and the coolest high temperature was 78 degrees in Montauk, NY and New London, CT.



[notice]The next forecast discussion, and updated 5-day forecast, will be posted on Friday in the late afternoon.[/notice]

Today – Monday: Scattered Storms

Behind yesterday’s storms, partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected today with isolated showers or thunderstorms possible; a northeast flow will keep eastern parts of the area chilly, with highs in the low-mid 70s in east Long Island and SE CT, mid to upper 70s in central-western Long Island and SW CT, upper 70s in NYC, and upper 70s to low 80s in northern NJ and SE NY. A weak high pressure will build in tonight into Friday, with lows tonight ranging from the upper 50s-low 60s inland to the mid-upper 60s in NYC, followed by mostly sunny skies on Friday with a light SW wind and highs in the low to mid 80s away from the coast, where highs should peak in the mid-upper 70s.

Low-mid level warm air advection is expected for Saturday as a warmer air mass enters from the west with 850mb temperatures rising to near 18C, with several vort maxes moving through the region triggering more widespread cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms, mostly north of the area, with otherwise isolated storms in the area for the afternoon and evening. The increased cloud cover and south wind will prevent temperatures from reaching the 90s, instead peaking in the upper 70s-low 80s near the coast and the mid 80s for the rest of the area, with overnight lows ranging from the mid 60s inland to the low 70s near NYC. Mostly cloudy skies and scattered thunderstorms are expected to spread into the area for Sunday and especially Monday as a cold front slowly approaches from the west, with high temperatures slightly falling into the upper 70s to low 80s for most, with mid 80s possible near and southwest of NYC.

Tuesday – Next Weekend: Cooler Temps Return

The cold front is likely at this time to move through on Tuesday, with continued thunderstorms possible gradually ending either during the day or at night. The cold front will slow down as the incoming trough behind the front weakens and lifts out, with the air mass behind the front only slightly cooler than the previous one. Meanwhile, a strong upper level low will dive southeast through Canada towards the Great Lakes, bringing a much stronger cool air mass along with it, which is then forecast to swing through southern Canada and possibly the Northeast US during the Thursday-Saturday time frame next week. There is some uncertainty regarding how far south this trough digs into the region; should the further south scenario verify, currently supported by the ECM model, much cooler temperatures would be likely with lows in the 40s possible inland, with the further north scenario consisting of the cooler air mass failing to push south into the area, with temperatures instead remaining near average. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.

4 thoughts on “Aug 29, 2013: Stormy Sun-Tue, Then Cooler

  1. Anonymous Reply

    Are there any pop-up thunderstorms expected for NYC and Long Island later today?

    • NYC Area Weather Post authorReply

      There are a few isolated thunderstorms possible in the area later today; storm coverage, if any, should be limited to isolated pop up non-severe storms.

  2. Anonymous Reply

    Any pop-up showers/thunderstorms expected in NYC and Long Island on Friday afternoon and evening?

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