Aug 28, 2013: Storms Likely Return Sunday-Monday

Forecast Highlights:

northeast4A warm and humid air mass will remain in place through Sunday, with partly to occasionally mostly cloudy skies and isolated thunderstorms on some days. A cold front is expected to move through on Monday, likely producing showers and thunderstorms across the region on Sunday and especially Monday, followed by a cool down for the mid-late week period with temperatures cooling down to near-below average.


 

 


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Tuesday, August 27 Observations:

8.27.13Behind Monday night’s heavy rainfall north of NYC, drier conditions and more sunshine returned for Tuesday along with a north wind, with a warm air mass aloft and continued humid conditions leading to warmer than average temperatures, peaking in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees for most except for eastern locations in the mid 70s to low 80s. The highest temperature was 90 degrees in Newark, and the coolest high temperature was 76 degrees in Montauk, NY.

 

 


 

Today – Sunday: Isolated Storms Possible, Highs In 80s

As the latest radar image shows at the top of this post, rain and some thunderstorms are diving southeast into West Virginia and Virginia, and are likely to remain to the south of the area. Partly cloudy skies are expected today with isolated afternoon and evening showers/storms across the area, with highs peaking in the low to mid 80s across the area, possibly in the upper 80s in the immediate NYC area, with a light SE wind. Thursday and Friday are expected to be partly sunny as well with highs in the low-mid 80s near the coast and the mid 80s elsewhere, with mostly dry conditions expected although isolated storms are possible north and NE of NYC on Thursday evening.

The next shortwave trough will reach the region on Saturday and Sunday, producing more widespread cloud cover along with scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across the region; most storms will likely stay north of NYC, but with scattered storm activity possible in the area especially on Sunday. High temperatures are forecast to slightly cool down into the low 80s for most, near the mid 80s in NYC and upper 70s inland and near the coast, although a humid air mass will remain in place with overnight lows struggling to fall below the mid 60s to low 70s.

Monday – Next Week: Stormy Monday, Then Cooler

The next cold front is expected to move through around Monday night, as an amplified pattern sets up aloft with ridging expanding north in the western US as an incoming trough dives southeast and amplifies as it reaches the eastern US. While there remains some uncertainty with the exact timing of the front, at this time it is likely to produce scattered, if not widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region, some which could be heavy. A trough is then likely to move in for the middle of next week with drier conditions and cooler temperatures, possibly back into the upper 70s range for highs, although at this time it does not appear the mid week cool down will be significant, with the trough possibly weakening ahead of another incoming stronger cool air mass from northern Canada, which may either enter the region for the late week with another round of cool temperatures, or stay north in Canada with warming temperatures in the area. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.

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