Aug 22, 2013: Summer Is Not Over Yet

Forecast Highlights:

1538A cold front will move through the area tonight, with scattered showers and thunderstorms, locally heavy, expected during the day. Cooler temperatures will briefly return for the weekend with mostly sunny skies as highs reach the upper 70s to low 80s for most. Despite the cooler than average start to August, however, summer is not over yet, with an active pattern setting up for the next 1-2 weeks as a heat ridge develops over the central US with occasional surges of heat and thunderstorms spreading into the area through early September.

 


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Wednesday, August 21 Observations:

8.21.13A warm air mass remained over the region with a southwest flow, bringing another day of above average temperatures to the region; while these temperatures are not unusual for this time of the year, it is the first time temperatures have been this warm in nearly a month following the cool start to August. Temperatures climbed into the mid to upper 80s across the area, with the immediate NYC area reaching the low 90s; Central Park reached 90 degrees as well, making it the first time Central Park reached 90 degrees this month after the cooler than average start to August. The highest temperature was 91 degrees in Newark, NJ, and the coolest high temperature was 83 degrees in New London, CT.

 


 

Today – Weekend: Scattered Storms Today, Then Cooler

1538As the latest radar to the left shows as of 12 PM, showers and thunderstorms are currently affecting the area, with totals near and south of NYC locally as high as 1-3 inches so far. Scattered showers and storms will continue through early this afternoon, with additional isolated activity possible this evening and early tonight as a cold front moves through but not as widespread as this morning. Due to the cloud cover and isolated rain, temperatures will be cooler today, peaking in the mid 80s for most and the mid to upper 80s near NYC.

Behind the cold front, a cooler air mass will return into the region for Friday and the weekend. The warmer air aloft will still be present on Friday, keeping temperatures in the low to mid 80s for highs along with mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows will fall into the mid-upper 50s away from NYC and the immediate coast, where lows are likely to fall into the low-mid 60s. Saturday and Sunday are both expected to be mostly sunny with highs in the mid-upper 70s in the eastern parts of the area and the upper 70s-low 80s elsewhere, with overnight lows on Saturday night falling into the low-mid 50s inland, mid-upper 50s for the north/west suburbs of NYC, south CT and east-central LI, and the low 60s in NYC and the immediate coast.

Next Week: Warmer, Stormier

patternAs the trough digs into the region this weekend with another trough stationary over the northwest US, a strong ridge will gradually build over the central US this weekend, remaining generally stationed in the same region for the next 1-2 weeks, resulting in a widespread heat wave across the central US with temperatures climbing into the 90s and 100s. The northeast US region will be in between this ridging and troughing in southeast Canada, resulting in a northwest flow aloft. Occasional heat surges will attempt to reach the region, but will mostly be suppressed by shortwaves diving southeast from the upper Midwest into the northern Great Lakes and Northeast region along with the mid-upper level flow, which will trigger rain and thunderstorms, possibly strong/severe with MCS activity possible along the aforementioned axis, followed by a temporary cool down and a repeating pattern afterwards while the sustained heat wave stays mostly to the west.

Monday is likely to be partly sunny with slightly warmer temperatures, climbing into the low to mid 80s for highs, but with thunderstorms likely approaching from the Great Lakes and northern New York. Thunderstorms may be possible overnight into Tuesday with slightly warmer temperatures on Tuesday, possibly in the mid-upper 80s, followed by slightly cooler temperatures for Wednesday. The model guidance varies regarding the exact timing of any thunderstorm complex reaching the area, making it difficult to narrow down to exactly when rain is possible, although the risk of storms likely continues through at least Thursday, with cooler temperatures possible towards Friday and next weekend followed by another potential heat surge and thunderstorm risk towards early next week. Beyond next weekend, the outlook for the first week of September depends on the setup of the ridge; should the ridge remain centered over the central US or shift west, additional storm activity with temperatures overall near to slightly below average is possible, although should the ridge shift east closer to the region, a more significant surge of heat may take place. Stay tuned for more information on next week’s outlook.

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