Aug 16, 2013: 80s Return Next Week

Forecast Highlights:

northeastA cool air mass over the region continues to slowly weaken, with temperatures gradually rising back into the low 80s for the weekend. Isolated showers and storms may return for Monday and Tuesday, with otherwise mostly dry conditions next week as temperatures continue to rise, ending up back above average with highs likely to peak in the mid 80s to low 90s range.



<< August 14 | August 15 | August 16 >>

Thursday, August 15 Observations:

8.15.13Cooler than average temperatures continued across the region, with clear skies and light winds resulting in chilly morning low temperatures, in the mid 40s to low 50s away from NYC and the immediate coast. Central Park had a low of 59 degrees, 9 degrees below average and 5 degrees warmer than the record low of 54 set back in 1964. The immediate north/west suburbs fell into the low-mid 50s, while interior locations such as Sussex, NJ reached 46 degrees. Mainly sunny skies were observed during the day with highs rising into the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. The highest temperature was 80 degrees in Teterboro and Newark, NJ, and the coolest high temperature was 74 degrees in Sussex, NJ and Port Jervis, NY.

Records set/tied on Thursday, August 15:

Islip, NY – low temperature
56 degrees (previous record: 57 degrees – 1994)



[notice]New 8/16/13: A brief summary of the forecast discussion is now included in the 5-Day Forecast page.[/notice]

Today – Monday: Slowly Warming Up

The slow warming trend continues today as the cool air mass in place continues to moderate, with mostly sunny skies, light and variable winds, and highs reaching the upper 70s to low 80s across the area. Lows tonight are expected to fall into the low to mid 50s inland and mid to upper 50s elsewhere away from NYC and the immediate coast, which will fall into the low 60s. Mostly sunny skies are expected again on Saturday with a light SE wind and highs rising into the upper 70s to low 80s inland and near the coast and the low to mid 80s elsewhere.

The high pressure will continue to gradually slide to the east, allowing a frontal boundary to slowly track north with clouds and showers spreading into Virginia and Maryland on Sunday, resulting in unseasonably cool high temperatures. Any shower activity should stay to the south on Sunday, but with increased cloud cover, a light ESE wind, and highs rising into the upper 70s to low 80s across most of the area, with coastal Long Island remaining cooler, in the mid 70s. Some models such as the NAM and the 6z GFS bring rain into the area overnight while others such as the ECM keep the area dry; at this time I am siding with a dry scenario for the forecast along with mostly cloudy skies, although the possibility of showers can’t be ruled out especially east and south of NYC. The increased cloud cover will bring overnight lows back into the low to mid 60s for most of the area. Partly cloudy skies are expected for Monday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s for most.


Tuesday – Next Weekend: Warmth, Humidity Return

The area received a brief taste of fall with the cooler than average temperatures over the last 2 days, although summer is not over yet as a warmer and more humid air mass returns into the eastern half of the US. Ridging will gradually spread from the western US into the central US, placing the region under a W-NW flow aloft, while west-SW winds at the surface will bring a more humid air mass from the Gulf of Mexico into the eastern half of the US, with dew points climbing back into the 60s. The ridging will be centered over the central US, with recurring signals for back door cold fronts in the Northeast, one such potential around the August 23-25 time frame, which will limit the duration of any heat in the region and likely prevent a sustained hot pattern, although the pattern as a whole will be warmer than average across the region. This time period should at least partially offset the negative temperature departures from the first half of August – most of the area is 2 to 4 degrees cooler than average for the August 1-15 time frame – but may not be enough to completely erase the negative departures for parts of the region.

Temperatures on Tuesday are likely to continue warming into the mid 80s with isolated thunderstorms possible, with partly sunny skies likely for Wednesday through Friday as high temperatures reach the mid to upper 80s across the area; depending on the amount of sunshine and the exact pattern setup, parts of the area may reach the low 90s. Models signal the next cold front potential on Friday or Saturday with the next potential for rain, but with uncertainty regarding the exact setup, although next weekend may bring slightly cooler temperatures than the mid-late week time frame. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.

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