A cool air mass over the region continues to slowly weaken, with temperatures gradually rising back into the low 80s for the weekend. Isolated showers and storms may return for Monday and Tuesday, with otherwise mostly dry conditions next week as temperatures continue to rise, ending up back above average with highs likely to peak in the mid 80s to low 90s range.
Thursday, August 15 Observations:
Cooler than average temperatures continued across the region, with clear skies and light winds resulting in chilly morning low temperatures, in the mid 40s to low 50s away from NYC and the immediate coast. Central Park had a low of 59 degrees, 9 degrees below average and 5 degrees warmer than the record low of 54 set back in 1964. The immediate north/west suburbs fell into the low-mid 50s, while interior locations such as Sussex, NJ reached 46 degrees. Mainly sunny skies were observed during the day with highs rising into the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. The highest temperature was 80 degrees in Teterboro and Newark, NJ, and the coolest high temperature was 74 degrees in Sussex, NJ and Port Jervis, NY.
Records set/tied on Thursday, August 15:
Islip, NY – low temperature
56 degrees (previous record: 57 degrees – 1994)
[notice]New 8/16/13: A brief summary of the forecast discussion is now included in the 5-Day Forecast page.[/notice]
Today – Monday: Slowly Warming Up
The slow warming trend continues today as the cool air mass in place continues to moderate, with mostly sunny skies, light and variable winds, and highs reaching the upper 70s to low 80s across the area. Lows tonight are expected to fall into the low to mid 50s inland and mid to upper 50s elsewhere away from NYC and the immediate coast, which will fall into the low 60s. Mostly sunny skies are expected again on Saturday with a light SE wind and highs rising into the upper 70s to low 80s inland and near the coast and the low to mid 80s elsewhere.
The high pressure will continue to gradually slide to the east, allowing a frontal boundary to slowly track north with clouds and showers spreading into Virginia and Maryland on Sunday, resulting in unseasonably cool high temperatures. Any shower activity should stay to the south on Sunday, but with increased cloud cover, a light ESE wind, and highs rising into the upper 70s to low 80s across most of the area, with coastal Long Island remaining cooler, in the mid 70s. Some models such as the NAM and the 6z GFS bring rain into the area overnight while others such as the ECM keep the area dry; at this time I am siding with a dry scenario for the forecast along with mostly cloudy skies, although the possibility of showers can’t be ruled out especially east and south of NYC. The increased cloud cover will bring overnight lows back into the low to mid 60s for most of the area. Partly cloudy skies are expected for Monday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s for most.