A cold front cleared the area last night, with drier conditions and seasonable temperatures returning for today. Temperatures will remain close to average through Monday with additional showers and thunderstorms expected from a cold front on Tuesday, followed by cooler than average temperatures returning for the rest of the week into the early weekend along with continued dry conditions.
Tonight – Tuesday: Seasonable, Some Storms Tuesday
Behind last night’s cold front, a cooler and less humid air mass returned into the region, although the trough is no longer dropping south with a westerly flow aloft, which will keep temperatures generally near average on Sunday, with mostly sunny skies and highs ranging from the upper 70s inland to the mid 80s near NYC, albeit with cool temperatures tonight, falling into the 50s away from NYC and the immediate coast.
The upper level low will remain stationed over southern Canada, with another shortwave digging further south into the region, bringing another cold front through on Tuesday. Scattered showers are expected on Monday with highs in the mid 70s-low 80s as a warmer and somewhat humid air mass will return on Monday night into Tuesday, with overnight lows ranging from the low 60s inland to near 70 degrees in NYC. Scattered thunderstorms, locally heavy, are expected again on Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s-mid 80s across the area, with the front pushing through overnight.
Wednesday – Next Weekend: Cooling Down
A stronger shortwave trough will dig into the region behind the cold front, with a cooler air mass surging southward as well with 850mb temperatures cooling down to near 8C, similar to last week’s cool temperatures. Unlike last week, however, this trough will settle over the region for a few days with a surface high pressure setting up to the north, keeping the area under a north/NE flow with below average temperatures. Initially, this high pressure will keep the frontal boundary and its associated clouds/showers to the south of the area through Friday, with mostly-partly sunny skies and highs ranging from the mid 70s inland to the upper 70s-low 80s for the rest of the area. Overnight lows are expected to cool down into the upper 40s-low 50s in interior NW NJ/SE NY and the cooler spots in eastern Long Island/interior CT, upper 50s-low 60s in NYC, and the mid-upper 50s elsewhere.
Towards next weekend, the high pressure will gradually slide east off the coast, which should allow the clouds and showers to spread back north. There is uncertainty regarding how far north it spreads, with the GFS keeping the area dry with a warmer air mass returning while the ECM keeps cooler than average temperatures through early next week. At this time, the overall expectation is for a gradual warm up towards next weekend and early next week with increasing chance of rain towards the middle of next week. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.