2013 Updated Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook – Update
Posted: Monday, August 5, 2013



Saturday, August 24 Update:

Since the previous update, the tropical Atlantic remains quiet despite the climatological peak of the hurricane season underway. The Atlantic Ocean is mostly dominated by dry, stable air, with only one tropical cyclone this month, Erin, which also didn’t last long under the unfavorable conditions in the Atlantic. The MJO is forecast to advance into Phase 1 in early September, which supports increased tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin, although the upper end of the original hurricane outlook is less likely to verify considering the majority of August went through without any tropical activity. As such, I am lowering the seasonal hurricane outlook to 13 to 16 named storms, 4 to 7 hurricanes, and 2 to 4 major hurricanes.



Original Outlook (August 5, 2013):

his year’s hurricane season got off to a relatively fast start compared to average, with two landfalling tropical storms, Andrea and Barry, having formed prior to June 17. Since then, however, activity has failed to pick up, with only two additional tropical storms, Chantal and Dorian, in July; both were moderate, fast moving tropical storms that degenerated prior to reaching land. As of August 5, there is no tropical invest in the Atlantic Ocean, and no tropical cyclone formation appears likely through the medium range.

The original hurricane outlook called for a more active than average season; while the year got off to a slow start so far, it is not unusual nor unheard of; the peak of the hurricane season typically takes place from mid August through September, and the longer range model guidance indicates an increase in tropical activity by mid August. Last year, 6 storms formed prior to 8/5 with no storms in July, and the year ended up with 19 named storms and 10 hurricanes, although most of the hurricanes were generally weak. Compared with the original hurricane outlook from mid June, I kept the number of named storms the same while slightly revising the hurricane and major hurricane outlook downwards, with 14 to 18 named storms, 5 to 8 hurricanes, and 2 to 4 major hurricanes.

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