2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook – Update
Posted: Monday, August 5, 2013
Saturday, August 24 Update:
Since the previous update, the tropical Atlantic remains quiet despite the climatological peak of the hurricane season underway. The Atlantic Ocean is mostly dominated by dry, stable air, with only one tropical cyclone this month, Erin, which also didn’t last long under the unfavorable conditions in the Atlantic. The MJO is forecast to advance into Phase 1 in early September, which supports increased tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin, although the upper end of the original hurricane outlook is less likely to verify considering the majority of August went through without any tropical activity. As such, I am lowering the seasonal hurricane outlook to 13 to 16 named storms, 4 to 7 hurricanes, and 2 to 4 major hurricanes.