July 29, 2013: Seasonable Start To Week

Forecast Highlights:

northeast2A cold front moved through the region yesterday, producing heavy rain and flash flooding especially in western NJ and eastern PA. Temperatures will fail to cool down behind this front, however, rising back into the low to mid 80s across most of the area with mostly to partly sunny skies. A frontal boundary will affect the region from Thursday through Saturday, however, with additional scattered storms expected, followed by a cool down by next weekend and next week.



Sunday, July 28 Observations:

7.28.13 - CopyA slow moving cold front approached the region, producing widespread rain and thunderstorms especially west of NYC. Scattered storms initially affected eastern PA and western NJ in the morning hours, while a weakening area of scattered showers from severe storms to the south moved through NYC in the early afternoon. During the mid-late afternoon hours, a line of heavy thunderstorms developed over eastern PA, slowly moving east through western and central NJ, producing heavy rainfall and strong winds with most locations receiving 1 to 2 inches of rain; locally higher totals were reported in Morris county with localized flash flooding. Storms weakened as they reached the immediate NYC area in the evening with 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain, and collapsed to the east of NYC with under 1/4″ in western LI/CT. Temperatures were cooler due to the cloud cover and rain, peaking in the mid 70s to low 80s across the area.



Today – Wednesday: Seasonable Conditions Continue

Although the cold front moved through the area last night, temperatures failed to cool down as the cool air mass lifted north into Canada and a southwesterly flow set up, with highs reaching the low to mid 80s across most of the area. Similar temperatures are expected to continue through Tuesday and Wednesday as well with mostly to partly sunny skies and light southwest winds gradually turning west.

Thursday – Next Week: Stormy, Then Cooler

The next wave of low pressure will move through the region on Thursday, with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected. While at this time, widespread severe storms are not expected, storms may be capable of producing heavy rainfall. Due to the cloud cover and rain, high temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s are expected. Yesterday’s forecast update noted the potential for another weekend storm; the latest model guidance trended flatter with the setup, however, with only a weak frontal boundary south of the area slowly sliding southeast. While isolated storms can’t be ruled out for Friday and Saturday, probabilities of a widespread thunderstorm event appear to be decreasing based on the latest indications. With a strong trough diving into southern Canada, cooler than average temperatures are expected to return for Sunday into the first half of next week, with highs in the upper 70s inland to the mid 80s in the immediate NYC area, and lows in the 50s inland and low-mid 60s elsewhere.

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