July 12, 2013 Brief Update

[notice]Today’s update is short due to technical difficulties. The next detailed forecast discussion will be posted on early Saturday morning, July 13.[/notice]


Short Term Outlook: A wave of low pressure developed earlier today along the stalled frontal boundary to the east of the area, although the coverage area and intensity of the rain significantly exceeded expectations in parts of the Mid Atlantic, where as much as 2-5 inches of rain fell with flash flooding observed. As the latest radar shows to the left, the rain continues to slowly advance NNE, with steady moderate to locally heavy rain falling west of NYC and scattered showers from NYC and further east. Based on the latest short term model guidance, the rain is expected to gradually weaken while shifting north, with at least 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain expected, especially west of NYC where locally higher totals are expected.

Weekend – Next Week: Temperatures will gradually warm up back into the 80s this weekend; both days are expected to be partly sunny with scattered afternoon thunderstorms especially west of NYC. As strong ridging sets up over and west of the area, heat and humidity will make a return again, with highs on Monday likely in the upper 80s to low 90s, warming up into the mid to upper 90s by the second half of the week, which along with dew points in the upper 60s-low 70s may result in heat index values reaching and/or exceeding 100 degrees. Each day of the week is forecast to be mostly to partly sunny, although an isolated afternoon thunderstorm can’t be ruled out especially inland. The heat is likely to weaken towards next weekend as the next cold front approaches. More information on the heat wave will be posted with Saturday morning’s forecast discussion.

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