June 8, 2013: Stormy Start To Week Ahead

Forecast Highlights:

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The remnants of Tropical Storm Andrea continued to affect the area until early this morning, with mostly cloudy skies and highs peaking in the mid to upper 70s across the area. More sunshine and slightly warmer temperatures are expected for Sunday, but the dry conditions won’t last for long as rain and thunderstorms return again for Monday and Tuesday, with showers possibly lasting through Thursday.

 

 


Note: A storm summary has been posted for the heavy rain event from the remnants of Tropical Storm Andrea on June 6-8.

 


Tonight – Tuesday: Rain, Storms Return

A high pressure will briefly slide through the region, with mostly to partly sunny skies expected for Sunday along with a light SW wind and slightly warmer temperatures, peaking in the upper 70s to low 80s. These dry conditions will only be short lasting, however, as the next low pressure approaches from the Great Lakes region and tracks through southeastern Canada, just north of the US/Canada border.

A warm front will approach the area on Monday, moving through overnight, with rain and thunderstorms expected to start on Monday afternoon and peak overnight. There will be less moisture and lower precipitable water values compared to yesterday’s storm, although locally heavy rain is still likely, with rain totals expected to end up between 1/2 and 1.5 inch, locally up to 2 inches. Due to the cloud cover and developing rain, temperatures will be cooler, peaking in the upper 60s to low 70s across the area with the high temperature occurring in the late morning to early afternoon except for southern CT. The warm front is likely to clear the area late overnight into Tuesday morning, with mostly cloudy skies expected for Tuesday, warmer temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, possibly low 80s, and additional scattered thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening as the cold front comes through.

Late Week – Weekend: Rain Possible, Then Cooler

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected for Wednesday with temperatures likely in the mid to upper 70s again, possibly low 80s, with a risk of isolated thunderstorms but with rain less likely than Tuesday. By Thursday, a shortwave is likely to reach the region, with additional rain possible but with uncertainty regarding the low pressure track. Some of the models show the potential for additional moderate to heavy rain on Thursday afternoon and night; at this time, I added likely showers in the forecast, and the potential for additional moderate rain amounts over 1/2 inch will continue to be watched. The temperature outlook depends on the storm track; at this time I sided with slightly below average temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, although this outlook is subject to change.

Behind the next rain event on Thursday into Thursday night, possibly lasting into Friday, a trough will remain in place over the region with temperatures cooler than average, likely peaking in the 70s. By next weekend into early next week, some models show the potential for ridging to shift east into the region with a surge of warmth bringing temperatures back into the 80s. While this potential is a reasonable possibility given the setup in place, the overall pattern so far this month has consisted of occasional troughing in the region and, aside from the early month heat wave, a lack of sustained summer-like heat, and in this case, any heat that does spread into the region would likely struggle to become sustained. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range outlook.

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