June 27, 2013: Stormy Pattern Continues

[notice]Between June 28-July 5, this blog is going on vacation. No updates will be posted during this time period. The next full update will be posted on Saturday, July 6.[/notice]

Forecast Highlights:


Over the last few days, hot and humid conditions were observed across the region along with scattered thunderstorms; most of these storms so far stayed north, west and south of the area so far. Starting today, more widespread storms are expected across the region as a blocking pattern develops with a frontal system stalling over the East Coast for the next 7-10 days, with most, if not all days featuring a risk of showers and thunderstorms, possibly heavy.

Blog Update: Several new storm summaries were added in the Storm Summary page. The page will continue to be updated at times throughout the summer.


Today – Friday: Stormy Weather Begins

Later today, a low pressure is expected to develop over PA before moving into New York state overnight; the heaviest storms will remain to the north and west of the area, although scattered storms are still expected during the afternoon-evening hours, especially overnight, with some storms possibly strong and capable of producing heavy rain and gusty winds. Scattered storms are possible again on Friday afternoon, with at least 3/4 to 1.5 inch, locally up to 2-3 inches inland, expected during this time frame. Due to the cloud cover and storms, temperatures will be cooler, peaking in the low to mid 80s on both days, possibly in the upper 80s near NYC and NE NJ today.

Weekend – Next Week: Stormy Pattern Continues

By the weekend, with strong ridging persisting in the central-western Atlantic, the trough will be trapped over the region, with the cold front stalling over the region, slightly shifting west later into next week but remaining a main player in the outlook for this time period. This pattern will set up for a southerly flow pulling tropical moisture up the East Coast, resulting in a more tropical-like pattern for the weekend into next week with a risk of scattered storms, possibly heavy, for most days across the region.

While no day can be ruled out for rain, Saturday appears to have the lowest probability of rain across the region as the frontal system is initially further east, but is expected to shift west again as ridging in the Atlantic Ocean expands further west, with a higher probability of rain again for Sunday onwards. Not every day will have rain in the area, it will not rain and be cloudy for the entire day in locations where it does rain, but each day does have a risk of scattered storms, which given the tropical moisture could be heavy at times. Little variation is expected in temperatures, which are likely to reach the low to mid 80s for highs and mid 60s to low 70s for lows on most days. While July 4th is still a week away, the pattern overall favors a risk of scattered storms as well, although it is too early to determine how high the risk is and the timing of any potential storms on that day. No certain time frame can be given for the end of this pattern at this time as it is too far out for high accuracy, although the model guidance indicates the pattern may break around July 5-7.

As mentioned in the start of the post, this will be the last update until July 6. No updates will be posted until then.

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