June 11, 2013 Morning Update

Thursday Forecast Update

Link to last night’s forecast discussion

Last night’s update mentioned uncertainty and significant model differences regarding the Thursday storm potential, with scenarios ranging from heat and severe weather, to a chilly heavy rain, to dry conditions with rain staying to the south. This morning’s model guidance narrows the range of uncertainty and remains mostly consistent on the overall idea of a strong low pressure moving through on Thursday afternoon and night, producing a chilly heavy rain over 1-3 inches over the area and a significant severe weather outbreak to the south.

Last night’s preliminary forecast for Thursday into the overnight hours was for 80% of moderate to heavy rain with 1-2 inches possible; confidence further increases in this scenario with this morning’s model guidance, although there still remains some uncertainty regarding the storm track and how much rain falls in the area. At this time, I lowered high temperatures into the 60s across the area due to the heavy rain and increased probability of rain to 90%, although the forecast is still subject to some revisions. More information can be found in yesterday’s forecast discussion, and the 5-day forecast updated this morning. Stay tuned for more information on the Thursday storm with this evening’s update.

Record June rainfall? This storm will continue to be closely monitored for heavy rain, especially following the two significant rain events in the last few days. Central Park has had 7.99″ of rain so far this month, making it the 6th wettest June on record. The wettest June on record was 2003 with 10.27″ of rain, followed by 2009 with 10.06″. Considering that this storm has the potential to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain, bringing the monthly rain total to nearly 10″ by June 15, with another half month left for additional rain events, the potential is there for this month to be the wettest June on record, and possibly even one of the all-time wettest months on record.

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