May 9, 2013: Stormy Saturday, Then Cooler

Forecast Highlights:

After another round of rain earlier today, the upper level low is moving out of the region, with more sunshine and much warmer temperatures expected for Friday. Another storm will move through overnight into Saturday producing additional rain and thunderstorms, followed by drier conditions for Sunday into early next week but with colder temperatures returning as well, falling into the 30s inland.




Tonight – Sunday: Warm, Then More Rain

As of this evening, the upper level low was located over New England and is moving northeast. The ULL will exit the region tonight, replaced by a SW flow on Friday with clearing in the cloud cover expected. Temperatures will be much warmer than today, peaking in the low to mid 70s in Long Island and coastal CT and the mid 70s to low 80s across the rest of the area, with the low 80s focusing near NE NJ.

A low pressure will develop near Ohio on Friday night, tracking into Canada on Saturday. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over Pennsylvania on Friday, moving into the area overnight into Saturday. Some of the storms may be strong, although a lack of instability and widespread cloud cover will limit the extent of severe weather. Temperatures on Saturday will cool down due to the increased cloud cover, peaking in the upper 60s to mid 70s across the area. With the cold front moving offshore, clearing skies are expected overnight, with partly cloudy skies on Sunday and highs peaking in the mid 60s inland and the mid to upper 60s across the rest of the area.

Sunday Night – Next Week: Chilly Start, Possible Wet Ending

A strong trough will move into the region on Sunday night into the early-mid week, with another round of unseasonably cool temperatures expected. Temperatures on Sunday night will fall into the low to mid 40s from NYC and further east/south, upper 30s to low 40s in the north/west suburbs, and the mid to upper 30s inland. Mostly sunny skies are expected for Monday with highs peaking in the mid to upper 50s inland and the upper 50s to low 60s across the rest of the area, at least 10 degrees colder than average. The coldest lows are expected overnight, with lows in the low 40s in NYC, upper 30s to low 40s further east in Long Island, mid to upper 30s in the north/west suburbs and southern CT, and the low to mid 30s inland, where some frost may be possible. The record low for Central Park on Tuesday morning is 40 degrees set in 1878; at this time, Tuesday morning does not appear to be cold enough to break or tie this record, although it should be close.

A warm front will gradually approach the region, with partly sunny skies for Tuesday and highs slightly warming up into the upper 50s to low 60s inland and the low to mid 60s for the rest of the area. The warm front is expected to move through around Tuesday night into Wednesday, with showers likely along with increased cloud cover and highs likely similar to those of Tuesday. Uncertainty increases by late next week, although at this time the latest models suggest temperatures should continue to warm up on Thursday and Friday back into the 70s, along with a risk of rain on Thursday and/or Friday. Stay tuned for more information on next week’s outlook.

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