May 29, 2013: Hot, Humid Through Sunday

Forecast Highlights:

A warm front currently over the area will continue to move northeast, marking the beginning of a 5-day stretch of heat and humidity with scattered thunderstorms, possibly strong, likely this evening. The Thursday-Saturday time frame will contain widespread highs in the low 90s, with a cold front on Sunday into Monday producing widespread thunderstorms followed by a return to near-below average temperatures.




Today – Saturday: Stormy Start, Then Hot, Humid

After yesterday’s widespread rain, with rainfall amounts generally between 1/4 and 1/2 inch, locally between 1/2″ and 1″ in parts of northern NJ, as of 12 PM the warm front is currently stalled near the area, but is expected to continue to make progress to the northeast later today, resulting in mostly cloudy skies and temperatures surging into the low to mid 80s in NYC and northern NJ, upper 70s to low 80s in SE NY, mid to upper 70s in the western half of CT/LI, and the low to mid 70s in the eastern half of CT/LI. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over Pennsylvania and southern NY state this afternoon, tracking into the area by the late afternoon and evening hours, especially after 4 PM. With relatively high instability and bulk shear values, some of the storms could be severe with strong wind gusts, heavy rain and small hail. The focus of today’s storm potential is expected in the northern half of the area, especially over SE NY and parts of northwestern NJ and southwestern CT. Storm updates will be posted if necessary this evening.

Following this evening’s storms, drier conditions are expected for Thursday through Saturday; with the warmer air mass in place, the peak of the heat wave will take place during this time frame. Mostly sunny skies are expected on Thursday with a west wind and highs peaking in the upper 80s inland, the immediate coast and in southern CT, with low 90s in NYC and northeast NJ. Heat index values are expected to peak in the low 90s across the area. Friday is expected to be the hottest day, with mostly sunny skies, a light SW wind, and highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland and near the immediate coast with low 90s elsewhere, approaching the mid 90s in NE NJ. Mostly sunny skies will continue on Saturday with a light SW wind and highs in the upper 80s to low 90s across the area.

Sunday – Next Week: Stormy, Then Cooler Again

Scattered thunderstorms are possible in PA and NY on Saturday, but are mostly expected to dissipate before reaching the area, with a dry start to Sunday. Temperatures are expected to warm up into the mid to upper 80s, perhaps reaching 90 degrees in NE NJ, with generally increasing cloud cover. Showers and thunderstorms from the cold front are expected to affect the area overnight, possibly into Monday as well, with highs on Monday cooling back into the mid to upper 70s. Another trough will return into the region for the first half of next week, resulting in more sunshine for Tuesday-Wednesday but with the temperature trend swinging back to below average, with highs likely in the upper 60s to mid 70s and lows in the 50s, possibly the 40s inland. Uncertainty increases beyond next Wednesday, although a warming trend is likely towards late next week.

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