May 27, 2013: Rain Tomorrow/Weds, Then Hot

Forecast Highlights:

The storm that has been affecting the region for nearly a week has completely left the region, resulting in a mostly sunny and seasonable Memorial Day. The mild conditions were brief, however, as a minor change in the forecast scenario will bring another chilly and rainy day to the area for Tuesday, followed by a warm front passage on Wednesday morning which will mark the beginning of a 4-day heat surge, with temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s.



Chilly & Heavy Rain Tuesday, Hot Wednesday

A warm front will gradually approach the region on Tuesday, producing areas of rain across the region before moving through on Wednesday morning. This warm front was originally expected to be slow enough to keep the area dry on Tuesday, but a minor change in the expected timing will instead bring rain from the front sooner than expected, with mainly cloudy skies and rain expected, especially after 12-2 PM west of NYC and 4-7 PM east of NYC. The rain may be heavy at times especially in the evening hours, with at least 1/2 to 1 inch of rain likely. Due to the clouds and rain, chilly temperatures are expected again; highs will peak in the morning hours in the upper 60s to low 70s across most of the area before cooling by the afternoon and evening hours into the low 60s from NYC and east/south and the mid to upper 50s north and west of NYC. Unlike Saturday’s cold rain, however, not much wind is expected, with a relatively light SE wind at 5-10 mph.

The rain will continue into the early overnight hours on Tuesday with thunder also possible, with rain ending around 11 PM-1 AM west of NYC and 1-4 AM east of NYC. By Wednesday, the area will be in the warm sector, marking a significant change in temperatures, quickly warming to reach the mid to upper 80s from NYC and further north/west for highs. Southern CT and Long Island will remain cooler, peaking in the mid 70s to low 80s further west and the low to mid 70s further east. Most of the rain and thunder will stay north of the area on Wednesday, although isolated thunderstorms are still possible, especially in the evening.

Thursday – Sunday: Hot, 90+ Degrees Likely

By Thursday through Saturday, warm air mass will settle over the region, resulting in the first heat wave of the year for parts of the region. Mostly sunny skies are expected for Thursday with highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s across the area. Similar conditions are expected on Friday and Saturday but with more widespread low 90s especially in the immediate NYC area including northeast NJ. During this time frame, overnight lows will be generally mild, only falling into the mid to upper 60s inland and the upper 60s to near 70 degrees for the rest of the area, quickly warming into the mid-upper 70s by 8 AM and the mid 80s by 11 AM. This air mass is not a very humid one, although at least some humidity is expected to make heat index values slightly higher than the actual temperatures, likely reaching the low to mid 90s across the area.

The next cold front will approach the region on Sunday; there is some uncertainty regarding the exact timing of the front, although at this time the first half of Sunday is expected to be dry with slightly cooler temperatures, peaking in the mid to upper 80s across most of the area, with thunderstorms expected either Sunday afternoon/evening or in the overnight hours, possibly extending into Monday with highs returning back to more seasonable levels in the 70s for the start of next week. Stay tuned for more information on the heat and late weekend storms.

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