May 2, 2013: Brief Cool Down Friday, Then Warmer

Forecast Highlights:

After a relatively mild day, with northern parts of the area reaching the mid to upper 70s, a back door cold front is currently moving through the region, resulting in a brief increase in cloud cover overnight followed by slightly cooler temperatures for Friday. Warmer temperatures are expected for the weekend into early next week with mostly sunny skies continuing, with a storm expected to track nearby towards the middle of next week but with uncertainty regarding how much, if any rain falls.



Tonight – Monday: Briefly Cooler, Then Warmer

Expected Set-Up: According to the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), as of 6:30 PM, the backdoor cold front was located near central New England and moving SW towards the area. The most significant temperature contrast with this cold front was observed in New England as temperatures fell from the 70s into the 50s; this temperature difference will decrease as the front continues to progress southwest, with the main impact in the area expected to be in the form of mostly cloudy skies tonight and a reinforced 5-15 mph NE wind, becoming east during the day on Friday with mostly sunny skies expected again. Temperatures will be slightly cooler tomorrow compared to today, especially for interior locations, although decreasing winds at the surface as well as warmer temperatures aloft following the departure of a mid-level low brushing eastern areas will result in a gradual warm up over the weekend into early next week, but with the warmest temperatures staying north of the area due to the positioning of the ridge, centered to the north.

General Forecast: As previously mentioned, Friday will be slightly cooler than today was, especially inland; partly cloudy skies in the morning will become mainly sunny later in the day with highs peaking in the low to mid 60s in Long Island and coastal CT, struggling to pass 60 degrees near eastern coastal areas; mid 60s in NYC and interior CT; and mid to upper 60s north and west of NYC, approaching 70 degrees towards Orange county in NY. Mostly sunny skies will continue for Saturday through Monday with highs peaking in the upper 60s to low 70s from NYC and further north/west and the mid to upper 60s for most of LI and coastal CT.

Mid-Late Next Week: Uncertainty Regarding Rainfall

A slow moving frontal boundary currently over the central US producing an unseasonably late major winter storm will fail to progress further east with strong ridging over the region, with a closed upper level low developing over the central US region, slowly drifting east into the Ohio Valley and the Mid Atlantic region throughout the weekend and most of next week. To the north of this ULL, higher heights aloft will persist with widespread warmth across the northern US and southern Canada. The main uncertainty at this time is regarding the track and timing of the ULL, including how far north the rain extends, with the latest models split between placing the area near the northern parts of the storm with light-moderate rain and keeping it entirely to the south with no rain. The general outlook at this time is for a chance of showers for Tuesday through Thursday with slightly cooler temperatures, likely back into the 60s for highs, although given the uncertainty with the ULL, the mid-late week outlook is subject to change. Stay tuned for more information on next week’s outlook.

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