Tuesday – Wednesday: After scattered showers and some thunder especially north of NYC tonight, partly cloudy skies are expected on Thursday with highs in the mid to upper 70s from NYC and north/west, approaching 80 degrees near parts of NE NJ. Cooler temperatures are expected further east, peaking in the upper 60s to low 70s in most of Long Island and southern CT.
The next wave of low pressure will stay north of the area on Tuesday night, setting up for an even warmer Wednesday with widespread highs in the upper 70s from NYC and north/west, reaching the low 80s in parts of NE NJ and NYC. Southern CT is expected to reach the low to mid 70s, with Long Island ranging from upper 60s further east to mid-upper 70s further west.
Thursday – Friday: The frontal boundary will gradually shift south on Wednesday night into Thursday, and is expected to end up over the area during the day. As of the latest expectation, this will keep southwestern parts of the area warm, but northeastern parts with much cooler temperatures with overcast skies and scattered showers. At this time, highs are expected to peak in the upper 60s to low 70s in northern NJ, upper 50s to mid 60s in SE NY and NYC, and mid to upper 50s in Long Island and southern CT. The temperature outlook for Thursday is tricky due to the boundary ending up over the area, and confidence on forecast highs is lower than the other days.
A low pressure responsible for a major snowstorm and a severe weather outbreak in the central US will move into the region on Friday, resulting in widespread rain, locally over 1 inch in parts of the area. Once again, the model guidance diverges regarding where the low tracks. The GFS is the northernmost scenario, taking the storm well north of the area, while the CMC and ECM take the low south of the area, with the CMC over southern NJ. Both of these scenarios would result in heavy rain, but with the former resulting in a brief surge of warmth into the 60s and low 70s for highs, and the latter in a cold rain with highs in the 50s and possibly 40s inland. With slower timing of the storm than first expected, rain is expected to last through the majority of the day before ending by the evening or early overnight hours. Mostly sunny and dry conditions are expected for the weekend with highs generally in the mid 50s and lows in the 30s outside of NYC, perhaps falling below freezing for interior areas.