April 21, 2013: Another Chilly Night

Forecast Highlights:

Another night of cool temperatures is expected with lows falling to near or slightly below freezing inland. A weak low pressure will track to the east on Monday and Tuesday, keeping temperatures cooler than average with increased cloud cover. Aside from a brief warm up on Wednesday ahead of a weak cold front, temperatures are generally expected to remain mostly near to below average through the rest of the week and likely into next weekend and beyond.

 

 


Tonight – Wednesday: Mostly Cloudy, Some Showers

Over the next 2 days, a weak low pressure will develop off the coast, staying to the east of the area. Some scattered showers are possible in Long Island and southern CT on Monday night and Tuesday, but with its other impacts limited to increased cloud cover and windy conditions for some. Monday is expected to be partly cloudy with highs in the low to mid 50s east of NYC and the mid 50s to low 60s from NYC and further north/west. Tuesday is expected to be slightly cooler with partly cloudy skies further west and mostly cloudy skies along with scattered showers east of NYC. A breezy E-NE wind of 10-20 mph is expected mainly east of NYC; with a narrow area of high pressure over the western parts of the area, most of northern NJ and SE NY are expected to see a light NE wind becoming calm.

As the coastal low exits, a brief surge of warmth is expected on Wednesday with a south wind at 5-15 mph across most of the area. Highs are expected to reach the mid to upper 60s north and west of NYC, low to mid 60s in NYC, and the upper 50s to low 60s for most of Long Island and southern CT. A cold front will move through the area overnight, but unlike last Friday, is expected to be mainly dry, producing only scattered showers.

Thursday – Next Weekend: Seasonable-Cooler Than Average

A trough will return into the region for Thursday through Saturday, continuing the theme of the recent pattern starting this weekend of a lack of sustained warmth surges in the northeastern US. Temperatures are not expected to cool down by much, likely staying in the upper 50s to mid 60s for highs, which is near to slightly below average. Saturday is currently the likely day for mainly sunny skies with a high pressure likely to move through; uncertainty returns for Sunday as the GFS shows chilly and rainy conditions while the ECM and CMC hold the system back a bit longer, delaying the rain until at least Monday. At this time I am siding with a compromise of rain starting around Sunday night, but the timing is still subject to change as this is nearly a week away. Beyond the weekend, the outlook depends on the possible Sunday system, which may produce showers early next week according to the latest models, but no sustained warmth is showing up in the foreseeable range at this time. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.

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