April 19, 2013: After T-Storms, Chilly Week Ahead

Forecast Highlights:

A strong cold front is currently moving through the region, producing widespread heavy rain and thunderstorms along a squall line from New York state into the Southeast. The front will move through the area tonight, removing the mild air mass with temperatures below average for the weekend, peaking in the 50s for highs and the 30s for lows. The cooler than average temperatures will continue through most of next week as well with frequent cloud cover and showers expected again.

 

 


Tonight – Weekend: Storms, Then Chilly

As the radar image above shows, a strong line of heavy rain and thunderstorms is tracking through Pennsylvania, primarily producing heavy rain, strong winds and a risk of isolated tornadoes in that region. By the time the squall line reaches the western half of the area around 8-10 PM, the tornado risk will be significantly lower, although the storms will still be capable of producing heavy rain, up to 1/2 to 1 inch or locally higher north and west of NYC, along with strong wind gusts up to 50-60 mph. The line is expected to weaken east of NYC after 10 PM-12 AM with less rain, generally up to 1/2 inch or locally higher. The rain will clear the area from west to east towards 3-5 AM with lows falling into the mid 40s to low 50s.

A trough will return for the weekend, with temperatures dropping back to below average. Saturday is expected to be mostly to partly sunny with highs reaching the mid to upper 50s inland and the upper 50s to low 60s for the rest of the area, not much different than last weekend aside from the cloud cover. With a strong high pressure overhead, mainly clear skies are expected overnight with much colder temperatures, falling into the mid to upper 30s for the immediate NYC area, low to mid 30s in the north/west suburbs and Long Island, and upper 20s to low 30s in interior NW NJ, SE NY and southern CT. Sunny skies are expected on Sunday with highs reaching the mid to upper 50s across the area.

Next Week: Cloudy, Chilly, Rainy

As with the last 2 weeks, this coming week will again feature a storm over the region keeping cloud cover and a risk of showers in the forecast, but with the main difference the temperatures, as temperatures will initially remain chilly at the surface due to an E-NE flow despite ridging aloft. While the main low pressure will develop in the Midwest towards the early-mid week, a weak low pressure is expected to develop off the coast, keeping the area under mostly cloudy to cloudy skies along with scattered showers on Monday night and Tuesday, especially east of NYC. Highs are expected to reach the low to mid 50s on both days.

As the coastal low moves out, the next cold front will approach the area on Wednesday, briefly placing the area under warmer temperatures reaching the low to mid 60s from NYC and further north/west and the 50s in Long Island/S CT. Showers are expected towards Wednesday night and possibly Thursday with the front, followed by drier conditions for the late week and temperatures mostly in the mid 50s to low 60s.

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