April 16, 2013: Thunderstorms Expected Friday Night

[notice]Reminder: The blog will remain in a limited updating schedule through Friday, April 19. Until then, updates will be posted every 2 days.[/notice]

Forecast Highlights:

With a warmer air mass over the region, temperatures reached the low to mid 60s from NYC and further north/west and the mid 50s to low 60s in Long Island/S CT. Scattered showers are expected tonight and are possible on Wednesday and Thursday, with another short lasting warmth surge on Friday ahead of a cold front expected to produce thunderstorms overnight. A sustained warm pattern is still not expected, however, with chilly temperatures to return for the weekend into next week.



Tonight – Friday Night: Storms Expected Friday Night

A cold front currently located near western NY/PA will move through the area later tonight, producing scattered showers as temperatures drop into the mid to upper 40s inland and the low 50s for the rest of the area. Partly sunny skies are expected on Wednesday with a light north wind and highs peaking in the mid to upper 60s across the area. The frontal boundary will begin to shift north on Thursday as a warm front, likely reaching central NJ towards the I-78 or I-80 corridors by the late afternoon. Mainly cloudy skies with isolated showers are expected for the area; most locations north/east of NYC are expected to peak in the mid to possibly upper 50s with a SE wind. For NYC and northern NJ, highs are expected to reach the upper 50s to low 60s, and south of the warm front, likely near and south of I-78, temperatures are likely to quickly spike well into the 60s and possibly the low 70s in the late afternoon following the warm front passage.

The warm front will lift through the rest of the region overnight, with temperatures initially steady in the mid to upper 50s before rising towards the morning hours on Friday. A surge of warmth is expected across the region with temperatures reaching the upper 60s to low 70s as far north as northern New England, although warming will be limited over most of the region with mostly cloudy skies and isolated showers during the day. At this time, highs are likely to peak in the upper 60s to low 70s from NYC and further north/west and the upper 50s to mid 60s in Long Island and southern CT with a breezy south wind. If there is more sunshine than currently expected, highs could reach the mid to upper 70s west of NYC. During the overnight hours, especially between 11 PM and 8 AM, the cold front will slowly move through the area, producing heavy rain with thunderstorms expected west of NYC. With a lack of instability but relatively high bulk shear and a strong LLJ, most storms are expected to remain non-severe but with the possibility for strong wind gusts.

Weekend – Next Week: Cooler Again

The pattern so far this year aside from early-mid January has been cooler than recent years, especially when compared to last year’s record warmth in March. So far this year, February and March were slightly cooler than average, and while currently April has near average temperatures in Central Park, a sustained warm pattern is still not in sight through the foreseeable medium range. Occasional cool downs are still expected with this current pattern, with ridging struggling to settle over the region.

A trough will return into the region by next weekend, with partly to mostly cloudy skies on Saturday and highs reaching the mid to upper 50s across the area, approaching the low 60s near NYC, which is slightly cooler than average. Chilly overnight lows are expected, dropping into the mid to upper 30s away from NYC and approaching freezing for interior locations, with Sunday remaining cooler than average as highs peak in the mid to upper 50s again along with mostly sunny skies, perhaps a degree or two cooler than Saturday.

By early-mid next week, even though ridging will build aloft, the high pressure will remain north of the area, tracking towards Atlantic Canada, keeping the region under a SE flow which will prevent temperatures from warming much more than the 50s to low 60s. The model solutions diverge by the middle of next week, with the GFS bringing a cold front through on Wednesday while the ECM has a wave of low pressure on Monday and Tuesday prior to the cold front which also produces widespread rain. At this time, the general expectation subject to change is for rain on Tuesday and/or Wednesday next week with temperatures mostly in the 50s to possibly 60s for highs, which is likely to be followed by another cool down as another trough drops into the region. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.

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