April 1, 2013: Cold Again This Week

Forecast Highlights:

The brief warm up ended today with a cold front that moved through, producing locally strong thunderstorms over New England, more than expected, with scattered showers in the NYC area with windy conditions. A strong trough will return for most of this week with chilly temperatures expected again, dropping below freezing overnight, but with the cold pattern gradually coming to an end especially after a coastal low on Friday.

 


Tonight – Thursday: Colder, Then Slowly Warming Up

A strong trough continues to slide into the region, resulting in additional cold weather for the next few days. Partly sunny skies are expected for Tuesday with breezy west winds and highs peaking in the low 40s inland and the mid to upper 40s for the rest of the area. Cold overnight lows are expected, dropping into the low to mid 20s inland and the mid to upper 20s for the rest of the area except for NYC in the low 30s. With the breezy conditions, wind chill values on Wednesday morning are expected to drop into the 10s inland and the low 20s for the rest of the area.

Mostly sunny skies are expected on Wednesday with highs in the low 40s inland and the mid 40s for the rest of the area with breezy west winds expected again. Another round of cold overnight temperatures is expected, similar to Tuesday night, but with the trough lifting out on Thursday as a southwest flow develops, temperatures will be noticeably warmer on Thursday, warming up into the mid to upper 50s across most of the area, with mostly sunny skies and lighter winds expected.

Friday – Weekend: Some Rain, Then Warmer

A coastal low is expected to develop on Friday, affecting the region with rain but with the heaviest rain likely south of the area. The GFS model remains generally bullish in terms of northward extent and rain totals, but has been the strongest and northernmost model yesterday, gradually trending south and weaker since then. Most other models are weaker and further south, either keeping the area near the northern end of the storm or keeping the rain south. The NAM is now the northernmost model, which along with the DGEX brings over an inch of rain even north of NYC; while it is possible to see a further north storm than the majority of the models show, at this time the NAM is being considered an outlier as usual, considering its recurring long range north/amplified bias and poor performance with the majority of storms over the last 2 months.

At this time, I added likely occasional showers into the forecast for Friday, especially south and east of NYC, with clouds and rain keeping daytime highs in the 40s. Should the rain end up far north enough to affect the area, it would mostly fall before the evening hours, with drying conditions overnight. More information on this storm potential will be posted with the next several updates.

Looking towards next weekend and beyond, the pattern will continue a gradual warming trend, but with a significant warm pattern unlikely just yet especially with another round of strong blocking expected over Greenland. Drier conditions will return for Saturday with highs warming back into the mid 50s, with a weak wave of low pressure likely tracking through southern Canada on Sunday. This will bring warmer temperatures, which based on latest indications may surpass 60 degrees. With a relatively zonal flow, the possibility is there for this to be followed by another wave of low pressure, south of the first one but possibly north of the area again. More information will be posted on the longer range outlook as details become clearer.

2 thoughts on “April 1, 2013: Cold Again This Week

  1. Anonymous Reply

    Good afternoon sir, I have a question for you, What months does New York City, The Bronx and the other Tri-States will see severe weather? because I am very fascinated of Thunderstorms.

    • NYC Weather Reply

      Severe thunderstorms are most frequent generally between May and August, but can happen during other months, such as April and September, and to a lesser extent March, October and November.

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