3:30 PM: Weds-Thurs Storm Update
The last few days have brought yet another round of model inconsistencies with the upcoming storm. Initially, the models suggested a major nor’easter, but then backed down completely to a storm staying well south of the area. At that time, the possibility remained for a further north storm with more impact in the area, which currently appears to be the trend.
The GFS remains the northernmost model and has continued to trend even more north than its previous runs, now showing a major storm affecting the region with heavy rain, snow and wind for the NYC area. The SREFs also support the GFS along with the GFS ensemble members, otherwise the rest of the models remain south, if not well south, with the ECMWF still closer to the southern end of today’s models with less precipitation in the area. More information will be posted with this evening’s update, but despite a lack of general support for a significant storm aside from the aforementioned models, I am currently leaning closer to the idea of a significant storm than a storm mostly missing the area to the south.
The 5-day forecast has been revised earlier today; high probability of precipitation remains from yesterday’s update, with probabilities increased for interior areas, with heavier precipitation now expected. The forecast will be discussed in more details tonight although the storm is expected to be mainly rain for the coast, a heavy rain/snow mix for the immediate NYC area, and a moderate to significant wet snowstorm inland. Strong winds are expected as well with widespread gusts up to 40 mph, perhaps up to 50 mph east and south of NYC, with coastal flooding a concern for coastal areas. Stay tuned for more information tonight.