Mar 2, 2013: Slightly Chilly Pattern Continues

Forecast Highlights:

A strong trough remains in place over the region, keeping temperatures slightly below average across the region, peaking in the upper 30s to low 40s across the area, while a surprise band of snow in the evening produced. Similar conditions are expected to continue through the middle of next week, when a storm will affect parts of the region, possibly including the area, with rain and snow.



Tonight – Tuesday: Similar Pattern Continues

Earlier this evening, an unexpected band of moderate snow developed over the immediate NYC area, with widespread snow showers observed across the area with amounts locally as high as near to above 1/2 inch. Since then, the band has mostly weakened, although light snow showers persist near NYC. These snow showers are expected to end soon as well, with mostly cloudy skies continuing for Sunday with the possibility of scattered snow showers. Generally light NW winds are expected to continue with highs slightly cooler than average, peaking in the upper 30s to low 40s across the area.

As the cold air mass in place moderates, temperatures will begin to warm up back towards average in the early week. The coldest temperatures are expected on Sunday night, with lows in the 20s across the area, near 20 degrees for interior locations. Partly cloudy skies will continue on Monday and Tuesday, with a breezy NW wind on Monday and highs peaking in the upper 30s-low 40s inland and the low 40s for the rest of the area on Monday. Warmer temperatures are expected for Tuesday with a NW becoming NE wind and highs peaking in the mid to upper 40s across the area.

Wednesday – Thursday: Storm Expected, Impact Uncertain

The next storm is expected to affect the region on Wednesday and Thursday; since yesterday, the model guidance has narrowed the spread down, singling out a single scenario where the storm stays almost entirely south of the area, with heavy wet snow towards southern Pennsylvania, Maryland and West Virginia with the area near the north edge with rain/snow showers. The storm is still at least 4 days away from affecting the area, however, and additional changes are still expected with the models. The GFS ensemble mean has consistently shown more precipitation spreading into the area than the operational run, although there is a limit as to how far north the storm can end up compared to the current forecast with confluence initially in place over the region and blocking over southern Canada which will also prevent the storm from taking a northeast track up the coast, keeping its track more in an eastern direction until moving offshore.

At this time, at least some impacts, although generally minor, are likely out of the storm in the area, with light to possibly moderate rain/snow showers, with the possibility of some wet snow accumulations towards the western parts of the area, although the forecast is still subject to change, in which case the storm could have more impact in the area than currently expected. Stay tuned for more information on the mid week storm potential.

Longer Range Update:

Following the storm, the marginal cold air mass in place will continue to weaken, with temperatures likely to surge well into the 40s and possibly the 50s after this storm for the late week and the weekend with drier conditions, and more sunshine towards the weekend. At this time this does not appear to be a long lasting warm pattern, however, with the possibility of another trough and cooler temperatures towards next Sunday or early next week.

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