Mar 10, 2013: Winter Not Over Yet

Forecast Highlights:

An onshore flow developed today, keeping temperatures cooler near coastal areas in the 40s while interior locations warmed up into the 50s. Similar conditions are expected for Monday ahead of the next storm on Tuesday, with a cold front expected to result in windy conditions for parts of the area and heavy rainfall up to or locally over an inch. This cold front will mark the end of the current spring-like temperatures as a colder pattern returns and persists for a while, putting any warm pattern on hold.



Today’s Observations:

With an onshore flow developing today, cooler temperatures were observed compared to yesterday, with highs peaking in the low to mid 40s in Long Island, mid to upper 40s in the immediate NYC area, and the low 50s across most of central-western NJ and SE NY; a high temperature of 54 was recorded in Sussex, NJ. Cloud cover was generally partly cloudy with a light south-SE wind.



Tonight – Tuesday: Mild, Then Heavy Rain

As with today, a SE/SSE flow is expected to continue for Monday as well; with water temperatures still in the upper 30s-low 40s, this will keep coastal locations cooler than interior areas. Highs are expected to peak in the low-mid 40s in Long Island and southern CT, reaching the upper 40s locally closer to NYC; upper 40s in the immediate NYC area, perhaps exceeding 50 degrees west of NYC; and the low to mid 50s in north/western NJ and interior SE NY, locally exceeding 55 degrees.

By Monday night, a cold front will approach the area, and is expected to produce heavy rain during the morning to early afternoon hours, ending by the early-mid afternoon hours for most except for Long Island and southern CT. At least 1/2 to 1 inch of rain is expected across the area with locally higher totals possible. High temperatures are meanwhile expected to peak in the low to mid 50s across the area, locally above 55 degrees, with a breezy SSE wind turning to a light NW wind.

Longer Range: Colder Again

Temperatures are not expected to significantly cool down immediately behind the cold front; highs on Wednesday are still expected to be relatively mild, but slightly cooler than the previous days; I am currently siding warmer than the model guidance, with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s across the area, although this temperature forecast is subject to some revisions. By Thursday, a strong trough will move through the region with 850mb temperatures below -10C; the coldest temperatures are expected on Thursday, peaking in the mid to upper 30s inland and upper 30s to low 40s across the rest of the area, with overnight lows dropping into the 20s across most of the area, likely in the low to mid 20s for interior NW areas.

Temperatures will slightly moderate for Friday and the weekend, back into the low to mid 40s, but will remain colder than average while significant blocking likely develops towards Greenland and the Davis Strait region. Some models have been showing a potential light precipitation event on Friday night or the weekend; there is uncertainty regarding whether this event does happen, but should there be precipitation in the weekend, it is generally expected to be light and may include frozen precipitation for parts of the region. Looking towards the longer range, temperatures are likely to somewhat warm up by next week, although there is still no sign of a prolonged warm up showing up in the foreseeable range.

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